Scobleizer - Latest Comments in Zillow and housing prices

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Diego Townhouse — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 16:41:39 -0000

Zillows estimates are meant to be estimates and not guaranteed values. I have seen both sides where there prices are completely too high and completely two low. There are a lot of variables they don't take into effect when calculating values.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Sydney — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 10:08:08 -0000

When it comes to selling real estate, one of the biggest obstacles sellers face is a so-called “depressed” market. Even when a property is highly desirable, it can be hard to get the price you want in this real estate environment. You could end up losing a lot of time, money, and opportunities, waiting for a “perfect buyer” who may NEVER materialize!
The traditional solution is to drop your asking price. But this common strategy doesn’t always work in your favor. In fact, it can work against you, making your home seem undesirable and your position seem weak.

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Re: Zillow and housing prices

Todd — Mon, 26 May 2008 00:35:10 -0000

Zillow Rocks, I've used it or 3 years and it has always been a great gauge for me as a real estate investor.

Todd
http://reoassetmanagers.blo...
www.bpoeasy.com

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Broker Price Opinion — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 08:00:57 -0000

Zillow is still just a tool for sellers in the beginning of the sales process eventually most sellers will hire a pro.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Larry Sherman — Sat, 11 Aug 2007 20:55:08 -0000

I see I'm not alone in the apprehension of Zillow, and need for dating russian women :) (comment spam above)

I use HouseFront to find values, and can access on my cell too. The seem to use MLS or something to make it more accurate.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Drew M from Zillow — Sat, 11 Aug 2007 16:35:42 -0000

Ron-
Zestimates are not a replacement for a CMA or appraisal by a local real estate professional. We acknowledge that on our "What's a zestimate?" page - http://www.zillow.com/howto...

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Guest — Fri, 10 Aug 2007 23:44:30 -0000

Zillow "Guess-Idiots" appear to rely on public tax records that in some cases haven't been updated in twenty-five years. The zestimator is a sketchy tool to rely on. I believe it's best to use a Professional Realtor when appraising property.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Guest — Tue, 31 Jul 2007 00:03:46 -0000

“Guess-Idiots” at Zillow use outdated public records to formulate real estate valuations. They call those wild calculations - Zestimates. I thinks it’s best to use a trained professional appraiser.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

John — Thu, 14 Dec 2006 22:41:12 -0000

Zillows Zestimate is very inaccurate and really a waste of time. If you are the type that is looking for an accurate tool, as good as you can get without a REALTOR, then the Market Insight valuation tool is the ultimate. It is based on up to date MLS data and has virtually wiped out Zestimates. Why waste your time with an inaccurate tool?

As for the rest of the site it has now turned into a for sale by owner website which is unfortunate as these sites pop up and disappear constantly. Now that the Zestimate is known to be such a poor tool Zillow has nothing left of value to offer unless you are into gimicky features.

Zillow is the new dot bomb heading into 2007; shame as it had a chance to carve out a little segment of the business to survive in but this Frink guy doesn't understand the business.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Michael Martine — Fri, 04 Aug 2006 14:30:26 -0000

But, the lesson here is that Zillow’s prices are a guideline...

To me, it seems the lesson is that it's who you know, not what you know. Human relationships (between you and your agent, you and your network) are what drive everything. That's why social software is such a big deal (though we've barely scratched the surface) and why it's so maddening when you look up office furniture and get stores. The web is still just a big, dumb library full of "books." What it needs to become is a big, smart library full of books that understand their relationships to each other and to the people that use them.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Joe Klein — Thu, 27 Jul 2006 15:29:07 -0000

Interesting reading all the comments on real estate and Zillow. My own story is kind of interesting. After living in L.A. for decades and leaving the advertising and entertainment business, I decided to move to, of all places, Bullhead City, Arizona! I had been visiting the Laughlin, Nevada area for many years and there was just something about this strange river gorge and river valley area 90 miles south of Las Vegas with the Colorado River splitting this twin-city, dual-state area. It was early 2003, and my elderly fatrher, who I had been caring for in L.A. had passed away a few months earlier. I had some cash saved, and inherited a decent piece of change from my father's estate. At that time, prices in Bullhead City (just across the river from Laughlin) were incredilby low! In fact, after taking a serious hit in the spring of 1990, prices remained totally flat for THIRTEEN YEARS! I had moved to the area just after Thanksgiving 2002 and was living in casino/hotels in Laughlin while diligently and tirelessly shopping for the perfect placeBullhead. It was still a buyer's market. Prices were so low, but even still you could negotiate a price a few thousand dollars under the asking price. I bought a beautiful, three year old 3 bedroom, 2 bath split floorplan home on over a quarter-acre lot on a cul-de-sac for $139,000! ($6,000 under the asking price). We closed in April 2003, and the VERY NEXT MONTH, the long anticipated rise in prices in Laughlin/Bullhead roared into gear! Just two years later, my home more than doubled, appraised back in April for $335,000 (still a bargain compared to California, I might add). A couple months after I bought the home, I contacted the owner of the lot next door to my home after moving in, I bought the vacant lot next door on the cul-de-sac for $22,000. Vacant land had just started to appreciate as well, but the owner of the lot didn't have a clue and was sick of holding on to a lot that he bought for over $25,000 and had depreciated to $18,000 and not come back up in value. He was glad to get rid of it. Last month I was offered $155,000 for the land! After a wild three years, prices have now, not surprisingly, leveled off in the area but are by no means going down becaue they are still very cheap compared to California and so many retiring baby boomers are moving to "all points Arizona. Regarding Zillow, in my case, pretty darn accurate, once I entered the proper infomration regarding features, upgrades and the like. Zillow's "zestimate" came in at $325,000, about $10,000 below the professional appraisal. So there it is. Meanwhile, am loving life in this offbeat part of the Mohave Desert (despite the extreme summer heat and VERY long commute to the Bay Area!) Just another crazy real estate story that some may find interesting. Hey, Robert, looking forward to meeting with you in Menlo Park next week!

Re: Zillow and housing prices

LayZ — Thu, 27 Jul 2006 01:08:17 -0000

Keith, if you aren't in real estate to make money, then you are in it for the wrong reason. I want a real estate agent to sell my house of the highest price possible. Because that will mean he will make as much money as he can. Otherwise, I'm wasting my money on that agent.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Joseph A. di Paolantonio — Thu, 27 Jul 2006 00:21:47 -0000

I hope that's not true Matthew. As my first financial investor said "savings are great, IRA's are fine, the stock market is necessary gambling - but your first and most important investment is a home, then houses."

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Matthew — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 21:42:28 -0000

I will never be able to get a house.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Joseph A. di Paolantonio — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 19:15:32 -0000

Wow, has this conversation gone on for awhile. A lot of buttons being pushed, it seems. The conversation has gone into a direction similar to Dan Gillmor'a on-going Housing Bubble conversation.

I bought my first house in 1979, in Delaware. When I first moved to California, in 1984, I set my limit at 200K$ and looked for two years. I was outbid on every home I attempted to buy [and to answer Robert Porter's question: yep, bidding wars above the asking price are allowed in CA]. I wound up renting for far too long, and kick myself often because of it. Those same homes that sold for ~220K$ in 1986 are going for well over THREE million today. My realator tells me that the home I bought on the Coastside for 395K$ in 1999, and into which I've put about 80K$ of improvements over the past 7 years, would list for 975K$ and likely sell quickly for more than that. The tree falling and improving the view, helped too. ;-) Not a bad return, and add in the tax advantages and you have a great return. I agree with LayZ. But, as pointed out, folk can make poor decisions and fail at any investment strategy, or good ones, and succeed in any market environment.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Keith — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 17:21:21 -0000

Zillow is a great tool to have in your back pocket for illustrative Comparitive Market Analyses, but it is certainly not the be-all and end-all. Still, it's something consumers should be made aware of to enable them to do their own due diligence. Multiple Listing websites are great for research as well. Licensed Realtors(R) should have access to a host of other tools as well, including comprehensive CMA's. One thing to consider when using any of these tools is that they are only as current as the data fed into them. That data could be as old as a year, if not more, so Zillow et. al. should not be the sole source of your research. Try to look at the market through a variety of windows. Read the paper. Visit Realtor.com. Eventually, you should get a fairly decent picture. As far as currency of data is concerned, I speak from personal experience, no only as a licensed real estate agent, but as a recent home buyer. We've been in our house for over 8 months now, yet the county clerk has yet to update their records. They informed me that it could take up to a year for that to happen. (This is in Suffolk County, New York.) Since Zillow pulls data directly from public records, this has a direct impact on accuracy. Regarding the market overall, I've been informed that right now, it's "Nobody's Market" (http://skillzdesign.com/blo.... All this means is that the market is no more predictable now than it has ever been, except in hindsight. As far as selling your house is concerned, never say never (also true with most things, real estate-related or otherwise). The only rule is there are no hard and fast rules. Go with your gut instinct, and don't let yourself be influenced by the naysayers. There will always be plenty of them. It's nice to hear someone speaking positively about real estate agents. Some of us are actually in it for the right reasons. Congratulations on sticking to your guns.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

CalgaryRealtor — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 16:53:15 -0000

Robert - First let me congratulate you on the sale of your home - as you already know, Stan is THE MAN !!!!

I also second your suggestion to slashchick to stick to the day job.

Lastly, regarding energy, gwhiz suggested a book that I'd urge anyone with concerns or interests about the global energy situation to read: "One Thousand Barrels a Second" by Peter Tertzakian.

The author know what he's talking about - the title of his book equates to the current daily global oil consumption (1,000 bbl/sec = 85,000,000 bbls/day). In a nutshell, it's all about a country's "energy mix" - how much dependence on any one source does a country rely on.

European countries such as France and Britain made a conscious decision in the late 70's to increase the nuclear portion of their country's energy mix, hence they aren't affected the same way that countries such as the USA (and Canada) are when prices spike.

The USA must (and will) increase their reliance on nuclear energy -- don't be surprised to see Bush (and future Presidents) harp on this. Coal also plays a growing role in the energy mix.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Robert Scoble — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 13:35:35 -0000

You're also forgetting the tax consequences of renting instead of buying (in US you get to write off interest payments). That's one huge reason I try to buy instead of rent.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

LayZ — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 13:31:31 -0000

Ken, you gave me an example of people making a stupid decision based on their current financial situation. I'm still waiting for examples of real estate being a money losing proposition as an investment...in the long run. Do you have examples of someone buying depreciating real estate? Again, not asking for examples of people being stupid or examples of people paying ridiculously high prices. Simply examples of people buying real estate the depreciated..in the long run.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Ken — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 12:51:51 -0000

Stan,

just minus interest, downpayment, remodeling and plus principal (which is very low in the first years of your mortgage) and tax write off. It's simple. And 150.000 would be suddenly less than a half.

And imagine that you will have environment where appreciation will be around 5-6% (copying inflation) as it is today. Do the math again.

If you are able to hold on for a long time (and you don't think about your house primarly as an investment but a place to live with your family) you will be fine. If you don't have at least 4-6 month of mortgage installments ready now and you are on IO/ARM, for example, everything I can say is good luck. That's probably what Erica is talking about. RE market is changing rapidly and it's tough to apply historical rules.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Ken — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 12:31:58 -0000

> do you have any examples of when real estate did
> not appreciate from the day one purchased it?

A bunch of my friends who bought properties in a panic mode in 2004/2005 way over asking price on IO/ARM. They are way down and with comming appretiation boom at the end it will be interesting to watch the game. Some of them cannot miss a month without paid job so that's what I'm talking about.

I work in this business (not RE) and I could tell you stories for hours and hours what people in BA are able to do in order to get into the house...

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Stan — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 03:56:37 -0000

should have said "realized a sales price of over @150,ooo over the purchased price of 3 years prior."

Granted there were sales costs, costs of repairs, etc, however, if you consider the tax write off, and still realizing a substantial profit after 3 years of home ownership (which would have been non-existent if paying only rent over the same period)...it would appear to be a wise investment to buy instead of rent.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Stan — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 03:24:59 -0000

All that I can say in a short sentence is, if Robert & Maryam didn't but 3 years ago, and they just paid rent for that time period (which would not have had any tax write off) they would not have realixed a sales price of over @150,ooo over 3 years. Erica, you do the math.

Re: Zillow and housing prices

LayZ — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 02:11:34 -0000

I didn't ask if there are examples of people getting in over their heads and making stupid financial decisions. I asked if there are examples when one LOSES money by investing in real estate..in the long run. Has there ever been a time where real estate did NOT appreciate? Even if I'm stretching myself, unless I was stupid and OVERPAID by QUITE A LOT for my real estate, do you have any examples of when real estate did not appreciate from the day one purchased it?

So, yes or no, in the long run is real estate not a fundamentally financially sound investment? Would any financial planner not recommend someone owning their own home, if they could afford it?

Slashchick implied that investing in real estate for the next 6-7 years would be a risky investment. She didn't say that referred to her, specifically. So, is there historical evidence of there being a sustained period of time where investing in real estate was nota fundamentally sound investment?

Re: Zillow and housing prices

Ken — Wed, 26 Jul 2006 00:46:50 -0000

LayZ - if you can hold for years and years, you have money and you're on a fixed mortgage, everything is OK. If you don't have money, you're stretching yourself every month to pay IO/ARM then fundamentals are big.
Arguing with history is funny - there was never a time when the ratio between affordability/income and prices was so high. Almost 60% all BA mortgages are IO/ARM.
20% appretiation game per year is over so imagine you have to move out of your house in the first or second year of your heavy IO mortgage...