Scobleizer - Latest Comments in Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Al Willis — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 01:06:14 -0000

The iPhone is activated through iTunes because tens of millions of users on Mac OS X and Windows already use it. Yes, they use it for their iPods, but it's pretty clear that syncing calendar and contacts data is also something else it can do.

I would argue that the iPhone is being marketed to consumers, but it's not a consumer device. It runs OS X, which is by no means a consumer operating system. If you've used an iPhone, it becomes pretty clear pretty quickly that this is a high end device, not a consumer cell phone with a nice UI and a browser. I get it that unless it talks natively to an Exchange server, it won't be considered a real business device, but we know that's coming, plus lots of other enhancements.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Martin Pilkington — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 15:00:12 -0000

Robert, all you did was list even more places you heard about Mac development from someone else and it's all to do with Mac development in the late 80s/early 90s. So I'm going to ask you these two questions:

1. Do you have any experience of software development on the Mac since 2001?
2. Do you have any FIRST HAND experience of software development on the Mac at all?

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Martin Pilkington — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 15:00:07 -0000

1. Do you have any experience of software development on the Mac since 2001?
2. Do you have any FIRST HAND experience of software development on the Mac at all?

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Joe — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 14:28:16 -0000

@100 Michael
I agree with you. Robert seems to want the iPhone to be an uber PDA appliance. Based on the way Apple is handling this, I'd bet that Jobs views it as a video iPod with a phone and a browser.

I don't own an iPod, and I don't plan to buy an iPhone. Those are consumer devices and have no appeal to me. No amount of 'cool factor' is going to change that for me.

Why is the phone activated through iTunes? It's an iPod.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Some Guy — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 06:40:05 -0000

Al,

I think that in the next year or so a couple of companies are going to try to make an "iPhone compatible" mobile OS platform. IOW, we'll see companies like Palm and Symbian scrambling to bring up WebKit-based browsers. They won't be as good as an iPhone, but they'll probably be far cheaper.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Al Willis — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 04:34:49 -0000

History certainly isn't repeating itself. Apple not being at this event has absolutely no bearing on the future of the iPhone. The assumption that you need hundreds or thousands of applications for the iPhone to be successful is certainly 90's-style thinking. So is thinking that unless thousands of developers get a real SDK, the iPhone won't be successful.

Apple doesn't do lowest common denominator platforms. That's been Microsoft's business strategy since the DOS days. If you haven't noticed, the industry is shifting away from this.

Apple intentionally doesn't play in this space--they build a lowest common denominator platform and license it to lots of folks and let any developer do whatever they want. Sure, they could sell lots of hardware that way, but the user experience would be lost.

Yes, it was hard back in the 80's to develop Mac software, mainly because developers were used to doing text-based apps on DOS machines and dealing with a GUI was still foreign to many of them. It was much easier to create a text app than a GUI app then. It wasn't until Microsoft learned how to create a GUI-based operating system by developing for the Macintosh (Multiplan, Word and later, Excel) did creating a GUI app become standard.

Apple is a very clever company--it's not coincidence that we now have Safari running on three platforms and Apple is really pushing AJAX/Web 2.0, which is pretty open. Get developers used to the challenges and constraints of doing web-based iPhone apps before they do a real SDK.

Lets talk in a year about marketshare numbers regarding the iPhone and the rest of the industry. As cool as the dev camp probably was, Apple has already turned the cell phone industry upside down--without a single vertical market app or SDK. Microsoft's lowest common denominator strategy is a relic that will continue to fail in market after market. It already has with music and video; it will with cell phones.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Some Guy — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 21:06:37 -0000

So, Robert: people take you to task for having basically no coding cred at all, and you try to counter that with having worked on magazines and hanging out with Bill Atkinson, and Dan'l Lewin (who, as it happens, isn't a software developer).

Let's cut to the chase: show us any CODE you've written.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

dorismith — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 20:09:25 -0000

anona @93: "And she’s angling for a job at Apple? Coincidence? You be the judge."

I've been unemployed since 1998--I'm angling for a gig with ANYONE! ;-) (hey, I've been told Starbucks gives benefits to baristas...).

But that won't stop me from speaking bluntly about how I see things. I've been blogging since 1999 and given that I've got years of online opinions, it's too late for me to suddenly start playing nice.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Robert Scoble — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 17:09:54 -0000

Martin: you're funny. I was using a Mac back in 1988 and was quoted in MacWorld magazine back in 1992. That was all before I switched to Windows.

You also must have missed some other key things in my life. I befriended Steve Wozniak back in 1989 and talked him out of $40,000 for our journalism department. I also sold cameras to MANY Apple developers and executives. Including Jean-Louis Gassée, who, many years later personally remembers me. He told me lots of things about Apple development.

You might have missed that last week in line I spent hours with Bill Atkinson. Apple's first software developer. He told me all sorts of stuff about Apple.

I also worked with Dan'l Lewin, who co-founded NeXT with Steve Jobs. He now works at Microsoft and told me a lot about why Microsoft beat NeXT and Apple in the developer markets.

I could go on...

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Martin Pilkington — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 16:36:16 -0000

Robert, I notice in your qualifications you didn't mention a single bit about anything to do with Mac development, let alone OS X development, which is an entirely different ball game. Try actually looking at what Apple offers before you start making your comments. If you want real credibility you'll research before posting and just say you don't know when you haven't had experience with something. Trying to paint what you have been told by others as your own experience is bad. Do I make a large number of comments about Windows development? No, because I don't have a huge amount of experience with Windows development. My comments on developer relations with MS are largely based on their allowing staff blogs and an open bug database (two things that developers would love Apple to do).

That said, I see nothing worthwhile on Windows development wise that would make me switch from being a Mac developer. It's just too hard to be successful as an indie on Windows compared to the Mac

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Robert Scoble — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 15:55:24 -0000

LayZ: did I say I could develop? No. I said I knew what developers wanted because I hang with them. Over and over yesterday people came up to me at the iPhoneDevCamp and said "you're right, where's Apple?"

I'm just the messenger here and I AM qualified to be that messenger.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

LayZ — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 15:44:00 -0000

@92."As to my qualifications: I worked on a computer programming magazine (BasicPro, then Visual Basic Programmer’s Journal. Then moved to planning conferences for programmers)"

Isn't that sort of like saying Roger Ebert can be an Academy Award winning movie director?...afterall he must know his stuff; he writes about it. Sheesh!

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Aruni — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 15:13:31 -0000

Well no matter who from Microsoft was there, at least someone was there. It is not easy being a mobile developer and now you have to find things out about Apple iphone development from other blogs like this one and on Real Tech by Burning Bird: http://realtech.burningbird...

We work with the Microsoft emerging business team as a SaaS partner and although it seems like it takes an eternity sometimes to get things done, we do get some perks and special development support....and hoepfully some marketing support soon as well. They are at least trying....but having worked with large companies before, I know you have to have the patience of a saint. Marc Andreessen says it well on his The Moby Dick theory of big companies post: http://blog.pmarca.com/2007....

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

LayZ — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 14:25:11 -0000

@87 "If you can’t tell the difference between invention and innovation, there isn’t much I can do to help you. Apple is not in the invention business."

By that definition either is MS. Now, we can debate who does "innovation" better. Clearly Apple does, but then again they control both the hardware and the software (what was someone saying about openness?). But, I guess one's man's "apeing" is another man's "innovation"

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

alan p — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 12:41:28 -0000

PS I use Wintel / open source in preference, but I admire the Apple strategy. And *someone* needed to kick the phone handset manufacturers in the pants........

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

alan p — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 12:34:28 -0000

Not sure why the surprise, this is Apple's traditional (and proven)business model - make a new market with a closed value chain and then sit back and cream c 10 - 20% of the game you created into perpetuity with a massive surplus.

Whats not to like if you're Apple?

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Thunk Different — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 11:18:57 -0000

The lack of love for developers should be a massive concern for those stock holders in the apple orchard. I know people were pretty upset by the safari only web apps for the iphone, and now they refuse to rep? They should step out of the sharper image hallogen spot light and refocus their spotlight on what matters. The developing community that will make or break their future.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

michael webster — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 11:11:18 -0000

Robert, you may be correct that it is in Apple's interest to attend more of these type of development conferences.

But, it is a bad inference from of Apple vs. Microsoft OS battle of the 80 and 90's to draw such a conclusion. The article would have been better had you focussed on what Apples says is in its best interests and then shown how by not showing up at these development conferences, Apple is misunderstanding its best interests.

Here is why the inference is bad. The OS battle is largely misunderstood. But, you in fact provided the correct clues to why Apple lost the OS war in terms of market share.

You said about OS/2 " I had it loaded and I kept being forced back to Windows cause Windows had more apps and everyone around me had those same apps."

Same experience with a Mac machine. Jobs recently made the same remark -more people were using non-Mac software and network effects largely confined Mac users to environments outside IT departments. Jobs seems resigned to that reality for the Mac continuing.

It is worthwhile to note, also, some of the losers in the computer PC hardware business: IBM, Compaq, etc.

The apps weren't there because MS was "kind" to developers. Remember all the MS vaporware announcements? But the number of apps overwhelmed the buying public, who wanted, in effect, a Turing machine for a computer. Despite only using 2-3 apps, the public generally accepted that it "needed" a machine capable of doing anything.

(One might argue, that, MS actually "lost" the OS war in that its biggest competitor is itself -getting those pesky window's 95, 98 and XP users to upgrade.)

Jobs et. al. have always been about reducing individual choice, eg the human interface restrictions. Now they are consciously producing digital gadgets and not Turing machines.

The iPod was a success because it was a well designed gadget that fit pretty much with what people wanted it do, in an elegant manner, and provided individuals with the ability to pay for music online.

Are mobile phones gadgets or Turing machines? Is the browser an acceptable interface to the OS, or do you need a SDK for a mobile phone? Is an iPhone a mobile phone/browser or is a wireless tablet? Apple has made its bet, consistent with its past decisions. Whether they are right or wrong has little to do with they are "friendly" with developers, or not.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

hugh macleod — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 06:53:26 -0000

Ooops. Meant to say, "All the talks I’ve been having WITH Microsoft..."

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

hugh macleod — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 06:52:38 -0000

Robert,

All the talks I've been having Microsoft recently are ALL about reaching out into the community. The conversations about actual products are very much secondary.

There's a social side to MSFT that Apple just does not have.

I agree with you that Apple have a huge opportunity with the iPhone. We'll see how long they can keep hold of it.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Ray — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 06:19:50 -0000

Apple are overated. All you apple fans talk up so much how good they are but seriously. Iphone.
-2g talk about SLOW!
-only one network. great.....
-copy + paste? anyone? but its so useful?(especially when you dont have a keyboard) nope? ok.

OS X is fine if you want to use the web or listen to some music but once you get into the real world hardly any appz work. Where I work at a large University they just gave the go ahead to stop getting macs. They dont work with SO many things that employees use.

How about apple make a real App like exchange? rather than making an OS where all the hard things have already been done by unix and you just build ontop of it.

market share anyone? how many macs are used? yeah exactly.

goodluck to the over-hyped over-priced over-rated iphone

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Elliotte Rusty Harold — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 05:04:58 -0000

Your history's faulty. I do remember 1989 and Apple had no sort of lead at all. The world was ruled by DOS and Apple was a minor player. The Mac has never had a commanding lead in the market. It's never crossed beyond 20% market share at the best.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Jayman — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 05:03:04 -0000

Mac is always trying to go it alone. there is cbit and other tech fairs and there is "Mac world". They're on their own planet and at the same time tryin to "be in everyhousehold and living room", come on, with 5% market and tools only perfessional service people know how to fix? Microsoft goes with every PC and laptop and people like me can make it work with any hardware i want in my box, that's why 90% of the world uses it.
As for phones and palms, Windows moble is everywhere but where is Mac? only eventually in the iphone. when it comes down to it not every one wants the "hip" thing, we just want it easyly avalible and on any platform we like and the is where Windows wins yet again.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

anona — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 04:23:22 -0000

"she says she’s been saying exactly this about Apple for years."

And she's angling for a job at Apple? Coincidence? You be the judge.

Re: Why Microsoft outplays Apple long term

Robert Scoble — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 03:03:53 -0000

As to my qualifications: I worked on a computer programming magazine (BasicPro, then Visual Basic Programmer's Journal. Then moved to planning conferences for programmers). This was all starting in 1992. I had a front-row seat to how Microsoft gained market share. I was back stage during Access 1.0 and Office 1.0 launches. Much of my career has been working with programmers and studying why they do the things that they do.

Many many programmers came up to me today at the Apple event and said I was right.

Go read Dori Smith. She's been in the programming community a LONG time. http://www.backupbrain.com -- she says she's been saying exactly this about Apple for years. That they HURT developers by not showing up and by being secretive.

She's not the only one.