Scobleizer: Why Microsoft doesn’t deserve Facebook
-gary
· 2 years ago
What would I do? Milk it for all I can before that flash in the pan goes out. It will never survive on its own in its current form. Their heads are swelling too much with all this valuation and IPO hype that they will continue to expand in employees and hardware to the point that the pittance of revenue they're making won't cover operating costs, let alone continued expansion.
Judson
· 2 years ago
I think anyone could do a good job at screwing over facebook, though microsoft might excel better in that field though ;p. The difference is that Mark Zuckerburg doesn't give a rip about business and solely cares for the community, something that no business man would understand.
I'd rather see mark stay where he is, not affiliated with any company. Going public might be good for them, but I would bet mark would want to hold on to most of the stock.
If I ran facebook? Probably up the bar on the facebook apps, on the stability/quality issue. Also, get more music into it. One of my favorite bits of myspace is that I find a lot of bands there through the flash player on there, thats actually legal. It's a nice no hassle way to find new music.
andrew h
· 2 years ago
if i ran facebook, i'd sell it to the highest bidder, go buy a tropical island (not a smelly oil rig like the pirate bay wanted) with the rest I would spend half on booze and women, and blow the other half...
Rewinder
· 2 years ago
Hype it up, hire a few PR firms, let loose the puffery VCs, get dimwit journalists and bloggers all a twittering, claiming it's the Second Coming of Jesus Christ, then sell off quick, and run for the border, Mark Cuban style...
A.Mullin.
· 2 years ago
I agree that they should keep massaging the quality on the apps issue and create new functionality that have been popular on other sites (including RSS for pictures - I don't like the pictures module on facebook, i use Picasa). Anyhoo... I have been on Facebook since 2005, but I have a lot of friends that have been on it since its inception going back to 2003 if I remember correctly. I don't think it is a flash in the pan. In fact, I think it could keep moving up in value if they keep focusing on the community. So, should they sell out? Hell no! Would I? Probably :)
Gary Denness
· 2 years ago
What I want from Facebook and what I'd doif I had Facebook are really at the opposite ends of the spectrum. Dude, if someone offered me a billion for my soul, it'd be packaged with a ribbon on it before the ink was dry on the contract. A web app would be easy to let go. That's reality right?
As a user, Facebook has really grown on me in the last couple of weeks. I've added a few friends which helps, but the Killer App is the apps. I want Facebook to be the centre of my online world - it isn't yet, but it could be. Bring my blog, Gmail, Flickr and all the other accounts I have out there into an interactive one screen package, where I can manage and operate it all. That would be cool.
Chris Rossini
· 2 years ago
I would like to see Facebook stay private. They're hungry! I'd like to see it stay that way.
Selling to one of the big boys will take away that fire...it's inevitable. And a hungrier start-up will rise up to take Facebook's place.
Allison
· 2 years ago
As a twentysomething who was a part of Facebook before it was even considered a possible business commodity that Yahoo and Google and Microsoft were going to fight tooth and nail over, I still hold a candle that it will stay as private and independent as humanly possible. MySpace went downhill after it was bought, and I have a feeling that too many fiftysomething-year-old men who just discovered Facebook in the last year and now want to use it as a come-on for marketing are going to destroy what's good and alienate the majority of constituents (college-aged and the recently-graduated).
Alfred Thompson
· 2 years ago
If I thought I could make good money with Facebook I'd keep it private. Only if I thought it was going to tank would I sell it to anyone.
As for Microsoft and social computing I agree there is a ways to go. I mean sure there are more users of Messenger than just about anything in its class, and more users of Spaces than just about anything in it's class, and more users of Hotmail thant just about anything in its class but none of that is any indication that they can handle things that scale. :-)
skc
· 2 years ago
Alfred, Robert said "best of breed" not "most scalable". Though I think Robert needs to tell us by what criteria he determines that a particular service is "best of breed"
RustyS
· 2 years ago
What would I do? Sell to the highest bidder while the Web 2.0 bubble is at its speculative peak and laugh my way to the bank.
From a user's standpoint, I see the potential and use the service daily myself. From an advertiser's standpoint though (my biz btw) I just don't see the revenue potential - at least not at the level to justify the hype/speculation currently raging. People love to compare Facebook right now to where Google was 4-5 years ago. But Google already had a strong, proven revenue system in place that would scale wonderfully with any future growth. Facebook doesn't have anything REMOTELY close to that right now. And all current and emerging ad models just won't scale to match the current speculative valuation. A Google or Microsoft can afford to eat the loss to gain marketshare. But I think going it alone with an IPO will lead to a quick bubble that will quickly burst once actual revenues are realized.
I'm with you on one thing, of all the major players capable of buying Facebook I'd like to see it be Yahoo. Partly to act as a counterbalance to Google in a growing online area (I'd rather see MS get it for the same reason) and partly because I think Yahoo has always been the epitome of a portal - something Facebook could easily morph into. I also like the way Yahoo has not meddled too much with other hot acquisitions. A lot of people complain that Yahoo doesn't do as good a job as Google of folding their acquisitions like Flickr and Upcoming.org under the Yahoo brand. But most of Google's most popular re-branded acquisitions have been utilities, not social networks. It's MUCH easier to slap the Google name on Keyhole (Google Earth) or Writely/XL2Web (Google Docs) than it is to bring a popular, social network into the fold. Notice they still haven't aggressively tried to fold their largest social site YouTube too much under the Google brand? Sometimes it's better to leave a good thing alone and only slowly bring along closer ties.
Perry
· 2 years ago
Or could it be that they get it in another way?
IMO, Facebook like any other social site, never stays on top for long. Yes their fun for a while especially when everyone you know is on it. But eventually (and it always happens, think geocites, myspace) the in crowd moves on to something else.
Robert, you are liking Facebook because you can finally relate to what the "kids" have been experiencing with MySpace, but it wears thin eventually. Mark Zuckerburg is adding retention by opening it up as a platform, but even that will pass.
I hope no company buys for the rumoured billions, since it is not econimically justifiable, unless we want to go back to the burning cash of the DotCom1.0??
ai
· 2 years ago
> Well, Microsoft has remained on the sidelines in > the new social services space for far too long.
Wouldn't that mean it'd be ideal for MS to buy FB then? I agree that Y! has definitely led the way in adding stellar companies to their web 2.0 portfolio, but couldn't it just mean that we've been waiting out to buy the most promising one?
ai PS: I'm speaking for myself and not representing MS or MS's stance in anyway.
Robert Dewey
· 2 years ago
MS can't handle the FB culture. Simple as that.
Mike Torres
· 2 years ago
Best of breed == things Scoble likes the best :)
I don't know why Microsoft has any bearing on this conversation other than making for a fun headline on TechMeme.
zane
· 2 years ago
Does Best Really matter anymore? I don't think it does. I would like to see Microsoft buy Facebook Having that network would really boost thier AD sales and help promote Live Services. It would also be great intergrated with XBOX Live and Zune. It would nice to log onto my facebook account and see what friends are on XBOX live playing Gears of War. What if they came up with an app that by squirting someone a song on you zune they would also get an invite to be your friend? What if they intergrated it with Windows Mobile as a friend so you could send a mass SMS message with an invite to be your friend? With a 2 billion pricetag I think facebook would represnet a good value to Microsoft. The intergration with Live Space and a Silverlight based video system would rock!
LayZ
· 2 years ago
"What would you do if you ran Facebook?"
Figure out how to make money and build and exit strategy. It CANNOT survive on its on with the current model.
LayZ
· 2 years ago
@3 "Dude, if someone offered me a billion for my soul, it’d be packaged with a ribbon on it before the ink was dry on the contract. A web app would be easy to let go. That’s reality right?"
No shit!! People that try to be all idealistic about not "selling their soul" are being dishonest. Everyone has a price. For some it may be unreasonable, but its a price nonetheless and they will do it for the money. So, when Scoble says he won't "sacrifice his integrity"..well, at some $$$ amount he will, and companies will. Again, it might be a dollar amount only Buffet or Gates can afford, but it's there.
Yep
· 2 years ago
You know what Scoble. I'm a softie and normally I disagree with you, for a number of non-Microsoft related reasons.
But on this one, I agree with you 1000%. We don't deserve a Facebook. Just like we don't deserve many other things like this (Twitter, Pownce, etc.). Even if we can pay for it, the execs here just DON'T GET IT, and 6 months from purchase, all the buzz would be gone and the asset would be all but dead. Now, are there those of us in the trenches at MSFT that could figure out how to really pimp assets like these in the "new world that could be MSFT"...yes, but well, you know the rest (see also "MiniMSFT")
You're spot on here.
LayZ
· 2 years ago
"vote for IPO since"
What was most recent successful .com IPO in the last year? Anyone?
Anand Dhingra
· 2 years ago
Microsoft just can't get any traction in the Web 2.0 arena: MS groupthink of decision making executives dictate EVERY element of their portfolio must "leverage" Windows.
The only way MS could have a chance with Facebook is if they abandon this thinking. They sort of did it with XBox, although even that is appearing to have jumped the shark.
Personally, I don't think Facebook should sell to anyone...
Ideally, users would start up some form of investment vehicle and could participate in owning the company while they add value to it by using it on a regular basis.
Short of that scenario, I think they'd be wise to stay private and accept taxable donations.
josh
· 2 years ago
I don't feel like most people understand what facebook is trying to do-- they're trying to become the provider/manager/source of identity on the Internet, not unlike what Microsoft tried to do once upon a time with Passport and Hailstorm and all that. They've just gone about it in a much more clever way, and that's what Microsoft is interested in.
The social networking stuff, along with the long-time reliance on belonging to particular networks based on an email address, is the key to giving people the incentive to honestly represent themselves. And whereas MS tried to cajole/bribe/strong-arm companies into signing up for passport, facebook has companies and developers falling all over themselves to create apps whose primary identity requirement is a facebook login id. I think Dave Winer pointed this out on his blog the other day-- this is the real opportunity for facebook, and the value is enormous.
That being said, I don't want FB to sell out to MS. I'm sure they would love to have access to all of that cash, but I hope they understand that what they're trying to a very delicate thing, and MS hasn't really shown any evidence that they get it-- honestly, neither has Yahoo or Google. I think they should keep it private for as long as they can, and keep control after they go public.
mario romero
· 2 years ago
Josh got it exactly right
John Gibson
· 2 years ago
Seems bizarre to say that if bought you'd want it to go to someone like Yahoo or Google. Neither are any better and Google is even worse when it comes to allowing a company they purchase to continue to innovate.
Jerome Paradis
· 2 years ago
At this point, if I ran Facebook, I would sell. Since thing move so fast, you never know what could happen before an IPO. And it would be quite enough money for a lifetime already.
About the other points. I am not sure.
I think Microsoft might be able to get it right. It's exactly what they need. It's a good platform to expand upon. Anyone in the tech industry you tries Facebook, gets it pretty fast on how it is powerful. For that reason, I would give them the benefit of the doubt to improve it. And, with the focus on the API and developers, that segment is at least something Microsoft understands well.
In any case, if they do buy it, Microsoft really need to put all execs on Facebook for a month before touching anything.
Krish
· 2 years ago
Amen to Josh. Facebook should remain private as long as they can and then go public. But I would also like Facebook to open up a bit more. The idea that my data is held inside a proprietary system sends jitters through me.
paul
· 2 years ago
What ever happened to that Twitter nut case?
Matt Campbell
· 2 years ago
Facebook, Facebook, Facebook. Come on Scoble, we get that Facebook is the next best thing to sliced bread but come on, there is other news besides Facebook, Facebook, Facebook. It's getting to the point that I'm thinking you are being paid to hype Facebook. Which I'm sure is not true, but it almost seems that way.
smorty71
· 2 years ago
Actually Mario, Jason Kottke got it exactly right.
I would love to hear Robert (or anyone else here) explain just what makes Facebook worth $2B. I've heard a lot of hyperpole, but very little else.
I think a better question is "If you had $2B of your own money on the line, would you buy Facebook?"
Rocky Barbanica
· 2 years ago
If it were worth a billion, why wouldn't you sell? how much more do you need? Seriously- greed is going to pummel these people. The lawyers will get the dough.
Rocky-
TanNg
· 2 years ago
@Scoble. Google reader is destroying value of blogs, because the most interesting part of blog is comment section, but Google reader makes you ignore that. So I'm surprising why do you praise it so often.
mario romero
· 2 years ago
@smorty71: It's hard to think of such huge amounts of money, but yeah, I think it's pretty safe to say if you want to lend me the money I'll make an offer ;)
Michael Gannotti
· 2 years ago
Whether it's Microsft, someone else, or if they stay private I would really like to see Facebook continue on its present course of becoming a platform and of facilatating community. I think that one of its biggest strengths is how it facilitates the creation of cross organizational communities in a relatively (for the web) secure and controlled environment. The addition of apps is great and needed but I think it is this community aspect that will help to really give it legs as it facilitates/fosters discourse and networking in a world where we are all scrambling to keep up with the technical churn, and where who you know is becoming as important, or more so, than what you know. Access, and interaction with many minds provides synergy beyond the individual and I think Facebook has really nailed tat aspect. Some added functionality is needed and some kinks to iron out but I think they are best positioned to provide this service that will grow in importance over the next several years technology developments continue to evolve the workplace at an ever quickining pace. If an organization was to purchase it I would hope they would continue to build on these aspects and not morph it in to something else with short sighted vision.
smorty71
· 2 years ago
Wow, Mario is a true believer :)
Kisholi
· 2 years ago
As several folks mentioned, what I personally want and what I would do if I was Mark are two entirely different things.
If I owned FB, it probably have been sold much earlier so that I could retire to some obscure little place in the mountains with no wires and low accessibility. As an enthusiastic user, I'm having spasms just thinking about what MS would do to FB. Please God, no. Mark should stay independent for as long as possible.
I'm a big Google junkie and wouldn't really mind them taking over most of the world, but I don't want *anyone* touching FB.
anon
· 2 years ago
Going public or selling out is just about cashing out. If Zuckerberg wants to change the world, Facebook should stay private. Google should have stayed private too: they could have been smaller, more secretive, moved faster and not had to answer to anyone.
As for facebook, this has been done before with MySpace and geocities before that. The number of features have grown but the layout of facebook doesn't really make it a "platform". I'm not going to sign up for a facebook account to read RSS feeds.
As for Microsoft, anytime they buy something it's the kiss of death. Look what they did to hotmail after all these years. That had the potential to be a #1 platform... how it's stagnated should be a case study in business school curriculum.
LayZ
· 2 years ago
@31 "“If you had $2B of your own money on the line, would you buy Facebook?”
No, the real question is, would you get more than $2BB value out of it? Otherwise, why would you part with your $2BB. And for a business, if they bought Facebook, how soon would they make their money back, and then start MAKING money on it? If that wasn't the goal, then why buy it?
John
· 2 years ago
I am a Microsoftie. But I have to sadly admit: Forget the Microsoft Execs killing Facebook. The Microsoft Office Org where Facebook might get shoved into is filled with feature-crazy dinosaurs. They will decide to strip widgets from Facebook and make them web-parts on Sharepoint!
valleyblogzine
· 2 years ago
I suspect Facebook will eventually get bought over by one of the 300 Pound gorrilas you mentioned Google/Yahoo!/Microsoft or even IAC. This however may not happen anytime soon but after all the hype has died down. Monetization of social networks is still a very nascent science and there in will lie Facebook's challenge.
Robert Scoble
· 2 years ago
Paul: Twitter hype is coming back later this week.
>It’s getting to the point that I’m thinking you are being paid to hype Facebook. Which I’m sure is not true, but it almost seems that way.
I'm not the only one hyping it up. Consensus at dinner tonight is it is THE THING to pay attention to on the Web right now.
Until someone convinces me there's something more important (I note you didn't try to do that) then I'll keep talking about Facebook and iPhone.
Paul Fabretti
· 2 years ago
Make it a co-operative so that every member is a stakeholder and has a responsibility to ensure the safe and continued growth of the business, led by a facebook-member appointed committee with facebook election campaigns and erm...other things!
Megan
· 2 years ago
I couldn't agree with you more, Robert! You have echoed EXACTLY the worry I have had since I read about the 6BN or however many BN phantom offer to buy Facebook. Microsoft is not able to even manage their own products and technologies in a forward-thinking, value-adding - - CUSTOMER SERVING - - way! How on earth would they be able to manage an acquisition this hot and still keep it hot and let it grow as it should? My only concern with your #1 pick is that you say YAHOO (OK, IPO, first; YAHOO, second). My hunch has been for some time is that Microsoft is trying to scoop up Yahoo. You can see small signs of it..lnot only in small press tidbits, but especially in how they are re-making Windows Live Messenger to look EXACTLY like Yahoo Messenger (OK, it's still SLOW and too cluttery, but the similarities are too telling). So, where would we be if Yahoo bought Facebook and then Microsoft bought Yahoo? Ooooh, I don't even want to contemplate it! Brings me back to my original idea to plead with Mr. Zuckerberg - - please! Don't sell your soul to the devil! Sorry for the verbose comment...Keep up the good stuff, Robert! Cheers!
That should total close to 20 Billion in the past 5 years in investments with little or no return. Had the claria deal went through, you could have tacked on 500M to that ongoing total. I secretly wished it did.
What does that mean for MSFT investors? No more divend payouts. A drop in confidence, and Ballmer finally booted out the door, with somebody telling him not to let the door hit him in the *ss on the way out. And a slow decent for MSFT in the same way borland did a few years ago.
I hope MSFT does buy facebook. I wish it.
Jeremy Blanchard
· 2 years ago
What would I do?
I would not sell. I would either go public or stay private if I were them. So far, they have proven to be masters of innovation.
Although, Facebook Apps might have been their last original idea and now they are just going to ride it for all it's worth. If that is the case, then *they* know that they should sell, but I bet they have many more cards up their sleeves.
Westy
· 2 years ago
What would I do?
I would buy and integrate both Linked In and Geni, creating 3 classes of 'friends'. Business, Friends (true social friends), and Family
Michael
· 2 years ago
Anybody using TED.com ? It seems to be the social networking site for thinkers and doers!
Nikhil Roy
· 2 years ago
Well first off - MS did buy tell me and leave them alone for the most part (or so it appears), so dont completely give up on that end...
Facebook? I say go at it alone - create the platform for the web - take on MS and google!!
Joshua Gooding
· 2 years ago
I have been horribly depressed since FB opened up to everyone. So much for being an academic social network. As far as I am concerned FB is doomed to become another MySpace.
Although, I like Westy's idea: classes of friends
mel
· 2 years ago
Microsoft really needs to get it's act together. Slipping further away from usefulness and becoming a hassle to work around.
All Comments
I'd rather see mark stay where he is, not affiliated with any company. Going public might be good for them, but I would bet mark would want to hold on to most of the stock.
If I ran facebook? Probably up the bar on the facebook apps, on the stability/quality issue. Also, get more music into it. One of my favorite bits of myspace is that I find a lot of bands there through the flash player on there, thats actually legal. It's a nice no hassle way to find new music.
As a user, Facebook has really grown on me in the last couple of weeks. I've added a few friends which helps, but the Killer App is the apps. I want Facebook to be the centre of my online world - it isn't yet, but it could be. Bring my blog, Gmail, Flickr and all the other accounts I have out there into an interactive one screen package, where I can manage and operate it all. That would be cool.
Selling to one of the big boys will take away that fire...it's inevitable. And a hungrier start-up will rise up to take Facebook's place.
As for Microsoft and social computing I agree there is a ways to go. I mean sure there are more users of Messenger than just about anything in its class, and more users of Spaces than just about anything in it's class, and more users of Hotmail thant just about anything in its class but none of that is any indication that they can handle things that scale. :-)
From a user's standpoint, I see the potential and use the service daily myself. From an advertiser's standpoint though (my biz btw) I just don't see the revenue potential - at least not at the level to justify the hype/speculation currently raging. People love to compare Facebook right now to where Google was 4-5 years ago. But Google already had a strong, proven revenue system in place that would scale wonderfully with any future growth. Facebook doesn't have anything REMOTELY close to that right now. And all current and emerging ad models just won't scale to match the current speculative valuation. A Google or Microsoft can afford to eat the loss to gain marketshare. But I think going it alone with an IPO will lead to a quick bubble that will quickly burst once actual revenues are realized.
I'm with you on one thing, of all the major players capable of buying Facebook I'd like to see it be Yahoo. Partly to act as a counterbalance to Google in a growing online area (I'd rather see MS get it for the same reason) and partly because I think Yahoo has always been the epitome of a portal - something Facebook could easily morph into. I also like the way Yahoo has not meddled too much with other hot acquisitions. A lot of people complain that Yahoo doesn't do as good a job as Google of folding their acquisitions like Flickr and Upcoming.org under the Yahoo brand. But most of Google's most popular re-branded acquisitions have been utilities, not social networks. It's MUCH easier to slap the Google name on Keyhole (Google Earth) or Writely/XL2Web (Google Docs) than it is to bring a popular, social network into the fold. Notice they still haven't aggressively tried to fold their largest social site YouTube too much under the Google brand? Sometimes it's better to leave a good thing alone and only slowly bring along closer ties.
IMO, Facebook like any other social site, never stays on top for long. Yes their fun for a while especially when everyone you know is on it. But eventually (and it always happens, think geocites, myspace) the in crowd moves on to something else.
Robert, you are liking Facebook because you can finally relate to what the "kids" have been experiencing with MySpace, but it wears thin eventually. Mark Zuckerburg is adding retention by opening it up as a platform, but even that will pass.
I hope no company buys for the rumoured billions, since it is not econimically justifiable, unless we want to go back to the burning cash of the DotCom1.0??
> the new social services space for far too long.
Wouldn't that mean it'd be ideal for MS to buy FB then? I agree that Y! has definitely led the way in adding stellar companies to their web 2.0 portfolio, but couldn't it just mean that we've been waiting out to buy the most promising one?
ai
PS: I'm speaking for myself and not representing MS or MS's stance in anyway.
I don't know why Microsoft has any bearing on this conversation other than making for a fun headline on TechMeme.
Figure out how to make money and build and exit strategy. It CANNOT survive on its on with the current model.
No shit!! People that try to be all idealistic about not "selling their soul" are being dishonest. Everyone has a price. For some it may be unreasonable, but its a price nonetheless and they will do it for the money. So, when Scoble says he won't "sacrifice his integrity"..well, at some $$$ amount he will, and companies will. Again, it might be a dollar amount only Buffet or Gates can afford, but it's there.
But on this one, I agree with you 1000%. We don't deserve a Facebook. Just like we don't deserve many other things like this (Twitter, Pownce, etc.). Even if we can pay for it, the execs here just DON'T GET IT, and 6 months from purchase, all the buzz would be gone and the asset would be all but dead. Now, are there those of us in the trenches at MSFT that could figure out how to really pimp assets like these in the "new world that could be MSFT"...yes, but well, you know the rest (see also "MiniMSFT")
You're spot on here.
What was most recent successful .com IPO in the last year? Anyone?
The only way MS could have a chance with Facebook is if they abandon this thinking. They sort of did it with XBox, although even that is appearing to have jumped the shark.
I posted a similar analysis a few days ago:
http://www.facebookblog.org/?postid=10000120
Personally, I don't think Facebook should sell to anyone...
Ideally, users would start up some form of investment vehicle and could participate in owning the company while they add value to it by using it on a regular basis.
Short of that scenario, I think they'd be wise to stay private and accept taxable donations.
The social networking stuff, along with the long-time reliance on belonging to particular networks based on an email address, is the key to giving people the incentive to honestly represent themselves. And whereas MS tried to cajole/bribe/strong-arm companies into signing up for passport, facebook has companies and developers falling all over themselves to create apps whose primary identity requirement is a facebook login id. I think Dave Winer pointed this out on his blog the other day-- this is the real opportunity for facebook, and the value is enormous.
That being said, I don't want FB to sell out to MS. I'm sure they would love to have access to all of that cash, but I hope they understand that what they're trying to a very delicate thing, and MS hasn't really shown any evidence that they get it-- honestly, neither has Yahoo or Google. I think they should keep it private for as long as they can, and keep control after they go public.
About the other points. I am not sure.
I think Microsoft might be able to get it right. It's exactly what they need. It's a good platform to expand upon. Anyone in the tech industry you tries Facebook, gets it pretty fast on how it is powerful. For that reason, I would give them the benefit of the doubt to improve it. And, with the focus on the API and developers, that segment is at least something Microsoft understands well.
In any case, if they do buy it, Microsoft really need to put all execs on Facebook for a month before touching anything.
http://www.kottke.org/07/06/facebook-is-the-new...
I would love to hear Robert (or anyone else here) explain just what makes Facebook worth $2B. I've heard a lot of hyperpole, but very little else.
I think a better question is "If you had $2B of your own money on the line, would you buy Facebook?"
Rocky-
If I owned FB, it probably have been sold much earlier so that I could retire to some obscure little place in the mountains with no wires and low accessibility. As an enthusiastic user, I'm having spasms just thinking about what MS would do to FB. Please God, no. Mark should stay independent for as long as possible.
I'm a big Google junkie and wouldn't really mind them taking over most of the world, but I don't want *anyone* touching FB.
As for facebook, this has been done before with MySpace and geocities before that. The number of features have grown but the layout of facebook doesn't really make it a "platform". I'm not going to sign up for a facebook account to read RSS feeds.
As for Microsoft, anytime they buy something it's the kiss of death. Look what they did to hotmail after all these years. That had the potential to be a #1 platform... how it's stagnated should be a case study in business school curriculum.
No, the real question is, would you get more than $2BB value out of it? Otherwise, why would you part with your $2BB. And for a business, if they bought Facebook, how soon would they make their money back, and then start MAKING money on it? If that wasn't the goal, then why buy it?
Forget the Microsoft Execs killing Facebook. The Microsoft Office Org where Facebook might get shoved into is filled with feature-crazy dinosaurs. They will decide to strip widgets from Facebook and make them web-parts on Sharepoint!
>It’s getting to the point that I’m thinking you are being paid to hype Facebook. Which I’m sure is not true, but it almost seems that way.
I'm not the only one hyping it up. Consensus at dinner tonight is it is THE THING to pay attention to on the Web right now.
Until someone convinces me there's something more important (I note you didn't try to do that) then I'll keep talking about Facebook and iPhone.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6388273.stm
1.5B to alcotel-lucent
9 Billion for the anti-trust crap from 2002-2005
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article...
And a nice 7 Billion for facebook
That should total close to 20 Billion in the past 5 years in investments with little or no return.
Had the claria deal went through, you could have tacked on 500M to that ongoing total. I secretly wished it did.
What does that mean for MSFT investors?
No more divend payouts. A drop in confidence, and Ballmer finally booted out the door, with somebody telling him not to let the door hit him in the *ss on the way out. And a slow decent for MSFT in the same way borland did a few years ago.
I hope MSFT does buy facebook. I wish it.
I would not sell. I would either go public or stay private if I were them. So far, they have proven to be masters of innovation.
Although, Facebook Apps might have been their last original idea and now they are just going to ride it for all it's worth. If that is the case, then *they* know that they should sell, but I bet they have many more cards up their sleeves.
I would buy and integrate both Linked In and Geni, creating 3 classes of 'friends'.
Business, Friends (true social friends), and Family
Facebook? I say go at it alone - create the platform for the web - take on MS and google!!
Although, I like Westy's idea: classes of friends