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Even uploading to Google Video would help fix this problem, because it can transcode to Flash for you.
the big question of MS is not would tech-freaks like you and me switch over, but will its corporate customers. As an admin herding ~1500 workstations in Europe, I can say all the reasons mentioned ain't worth jack shit.
XP with 2003 server as a backend is stable enough. Not perfect (no OS is with inexperienced/uncaring users) but Good Enough (tm).
Upgrading would be going against the law of diminishing returns for us, because most of the features mentioned are (with the possible exception of the net stack and the kernel but that remains to be seen) end-user FLUFF.
Plus, I bet the hardware requirements would require us to upgrade most of the notebook fleet and that simply will not happen anytime soon.
I've been playing the PC upgrade game since 1987. And geeks like us always have a reason to upgrade. There is always a widget that makes the upgrade worthwhile. But we need to find out why others need (or want) upgrades.
As I look at consumers, their decisions to upgrade are based simply upon what is available when they buy their hardware. For the majority of consumers, the choice to perform an upgarde will only come if they have a compelling reason to buy hardware. And while the visual "cool" of Vista will draw some folks, I can't say that folks will be buying new hardware just to get Vista - unless our marketing team puts together something with sizzle.
As I think about enterprise purchases, I do think Vista has some real drawing power. The ability to better manage systems and provide the latest in security technology will be a real incentive for many companies.
In the final analysis, I can only speak for myself. Why will I buy Vista? Well, I'm a sucker for integration. And Vista is such a pivotal foundation for everything else that will follow it.
1) I want to integrate the latest technology into my mobile experience. At a minimum, I want Vista to make my tablet indispensable. I want to see real handwriting recognition embedded in the platform. Yes, I know that pieces of this exist today. But I want to see it as part of the native stack for the computing platform itself.
2) I want all my devices (mobile or fixed) to be secure. My mobile experience will require real security - like TPM 1.2. No corporation can afford to have its valuable IP taken simply because it has enabled the mobility (and productivity) of its staff.
3) I want my mobile device (whether it is a tablet or a phone) to be able to control my home entertainement system.
4) At the same time, I would love to see the same device carry my photos and songs with me.
5) I want a platform with the ability to capture my speech and interpret it - not just as commands, but as a commentary/blog - in real-time. Sometimes, I can't wait for acces to my PC. And I am terrible at triple-tapping anything more than a sentence. I want to be speaking into a headset as I'm riding my bike. And I want the comments captured to text. In the future, text will be secondary. But for now, it is mandatory.
6) I want a platform that will adjust to my personal challenges. I have fallen in love with the Microsoft Laser Mouse 6000. This device is great. It is aprecision pointer with a button that enlarges the image underneath the cursor. It's like having a magnifying glass at my command. I can summon it and dismiss it at will. And I want this kind of technology everywhere in the OS.
There is so much more that I want. But these are my starters. What is clear is that I now expect that the OS can provide these capabilities.
Will Vista meet all of these needs? Unfortunately, it won't - at least, not by itself. Yes, Vista has the smarts to provide these features. But many pieces require coordination with hardware vendors. For example, Trusted Platform Modules exist in many systems. But to take full advantage of Vista, people will need TPM 1.2. There goes my new tablet (it only supports TPM 1.1). And speech recognition is still an expensive and mystic art.
But I believe that the pieces are on the board. We just need to array all the pieces in a compelling way. And the first step in marshalling the pieces is to lay down the framework. And I believe that Vista will be that integrating framework.
Oops. I've prattle on. I should post this on my blog instead! ;-) BTW, I've just purchased your new book. Next time I'm in Redmond, can I come buy and get an autograph?
Ciao,
-CyclingRoo-
I havent been able to play with it as much as possible...but it is very promising. I cant wait to more final builds of it, to truly see it working.
"Xbox MVP"
This place is like one big, long circle jerk.
Of course, once the shareholders fully appreciate the magnitude of the disaster, MS will be the next IBM: still huge, but stripped of its power to screw anybody else.
My best guess is that your market capitalization will drop by 40% or more over the following year, causing a cascading effect as stock-based compensation becomes worthless. Ballmer will become even more frantic, and will threaten other top talent who depart for better opportunities, making executive recruitment all but impossible for the Evil Empire.
I'm going to love watching it happen.
What are they going to switch to? Macs? Don't give me wrong, I love my iBook, and I have a MacBook Pro on the way, but Macs don't cover the entry-level low end the same way Dell, Gateway, and HP/Compaq do. Sure there's the mac-mini, but I know many people scoff when they realize they can get a PC with monitor, keyboard, and mouse for the same price. Macs work beautifully for those of us that can afford them, but it's a Windows world, and it will take many, many years for that to change.
Sure, they could install Linux on their PCs, but most people can barely figure out Windows when something doesn't go perfectly, much less Linux. Linux is getting better, but a lot of things still take some technical knowledge to accomplish.
Until OS X market share really begins to pick up speed I don't think we'll see MS going anywhere for awhile. In the next year I could foresee the Windows market share drop 1-2%, 3% at most, and that's if the intel switch-over for OS X is just phenomenal.
-mano
That's prettymuch like saying that you surrender all that has to do with podcasting and vidcasting to Apple's iTunes. If MS is pushing RSS, what's their reason for this?
Brett (on security/spyware): I believe that there is a video in there about the new Protected Mode, built-in Phishing protection, etc... I don't think it's called out explicitly in the list. From using Vista all the time now, I do feel a lot more in control of what is going on under the hood. I no longer think that somehow an app will be installed without me knowing, etc.
Move them to pr0n industry standard .mpg and you'll reach a lot more people.
I have been critical of some actions that Microsoft has taken. Being an MVP does not mean I have to shut up and agree with everything they say.
Never make those assumptions.
Geeks? Ya betcha.
Corporations? Dunno.
The other underrated feature I look forward to in Vista is performance. I tell people that my expectation is that Vista, on a new PC, will perform at blazing speeds. Why? Support for hardware specialization - graphics offloaded to the 3d card (and GDI actions are expensive, even with GDI acceleration), network packet reordering is done by the network card, multi-core CPUs allow for the OS process threads (and there are a lot of them) to spread out and make the burden of running the OS less apparent. At least that's my expectation :)
I not going Change that but if You buy New Computer In Follow Year or This early? That would be fine. Vista is New, might have alots of Problems with window operation systems ? so I better STAY-PUT On Window XPsp2. Everyones afraid of new vista . also new computer sell show 512mb That's Not Enought should have been 1 or 2 GB up (up 2000). bye
Wake me up when it's shipping, all your fuzzy videos, are but vapor until it's gold.
Mac on Intel, yum. Golden opportunity here, if they'd only OEM it. Sigh. Apple is more a religion than an computer company.
In the right hands, Vista's new UI tools sound like a powerful addition to Windows, but "with great power comes great responsibility." and not all developers are designers.
From what I've seen, many of Vista's new UI tools, such as Sparkle, are very similar to Flash, which is probably one of the most abused mediums on the web. Now Imagine thousands of Windows applications with Flash-like interfaces. (Buttons that look like images, unnecessary motion and transitions, etc.)
If a large number of third party Vista applications are afflicted with "Just Because I can" syndrome, usability will suffer.
For most corporate computing, a WTS farm and some cheap clients work just as well as standalone PCs. Better in fact. There's no worries about local infection, no hard drive. There's no worries about dead client registries.
WTS is a FAR more compelling solution for the enterprise than Vista. So is Office 12. But the OS? Who cares?
No really, who cares. I don't want my users to ever.have.to.know what OS they're running.
If they do, then somewhere, I've failed, and so has the OS Vendor to make it so transparent that you don't have to know or care. The proper way is to think of the OS as the perfect butler. Out of the way, assisting when needed, quiet, calm and utterly competent. Windows alas, is like a Boy Scout on meth. Well -intentioned, but annoying as hell. "Can i install a driver? Can I help you write a letter? Can I help you view a Window? CanICanICanI?????"
But that's what MS wants, so that's what the users get. Instead of a proper UI, more Wizards.
As for me, until I get more info on Server, Vista is really a non - issue. Office is quite real, Vista not so much.
Scoble, you get all the fun man, I watch all the vids and it makes me jealous - aargh! There are perks to working for Microsoft... apparently.
I really like the new scroll through Windows feature... do you know if there is a plan for a feature (like in Mac :( hot topic!) that resizes all windows to fit on the screen and then can bring them all back again to how they were before?
I want to know something though... how will users be affected by Vista in regard to copying files etc. Will I be able to copy a HD DVD film to my PDA in High Quality - AVC, but smaller? That would be my ultimate request!
I have no doubt that inertia alone will carry the Evil Empire for a very long time, but look at the historical example of IBM: many customers continued to pay for mainframe systems to keep their legacy apps around for years after it became more cost-effective to move to smaller systems.
Longwind is a symptom of MS's brain drain. Six years late, nothing worth upgrading for that you can't also get on XP, the same old security mess that MS's products have always had, etc, etc. I mean, look at the things they're concentrating on: RSS? Tablets? Catching up to Postscript? Trying to fight with Google? These are all reactive. Not a new idea in sight.
I'm not expecting the Mac to hit 10% of the personal computer market in the first year after longwind ships, but I can see Linux easily taking 20-30% of the server market. In fact, if you have legacy server apps that must run on Windows, the only way to achieve any measure of reliability is to run Windows under VMWare on Linux or one of the BSD systems.
MS is huge of course, but like IBM before them, they're dinosaurs. For at least twenty years now, I've been hearing people ask why, with all the money they spend on R&D, they can't even come up with basic security.
The long and short of it is, MS is too big to change, and too big to effectively adapt to changes happening around them. Quality just isn't possible when you have a hundred people with their hands in the same project's code.
Frankly, the best thing that could possibly happen for MS's long-term health would be for longwind to be such a debacle that their shareholders start firing managers en masse. A near-death experience is a great thing for returning focus to a business.
For me Vista's primary issue is in the consumer space. There are going to be a lot of people who bought a PC a couple or three years ago who are wanting to do more and more with it and considering an upgrade, and probably a replacement. I'm increasingly speaking to people who have friends who use Macs and are having good experiences. These people are all considering giving them a try. That for me is the real challenge point and I'm not sure that the answer is in the Operating System so much as in the integrated experience, technology, purchase and support all from the same company gives people a sense of comfort that they think will be better than the expereinces they currently get from HP or Dell.
The corporates will change when it's convenient for them to do so, and for most that will probably be driven by the support cycle rather than any features.
But the requirements for Vista are way too high and when released most of average (around 1.5 - 2.0 Ghz) will not run that fast on it. Plus Vista has incorporated slightly some features from the mac, if you ask me.
I know how you feel about 98>XP! It was definitely a positive shift. Although believe it or not I feel the same about XP > Vista for the reasons listed...
Regarding CPU speeds and Vista: Vista runs fast on 2Ghz PCs actually - but if you want "Glass Enabled" in the display options, having a DirectX 9.0 video card is where the magic is - more so than having a beefy CPU.
In fact, I am typing this from a 1.7Ghz Centrino laptop and everything is super fast, with all the bells and whistles on - the video card on this laptop is DirectX9.
To people who think that Vista will not take off: think about the fact that "every" new computer that is bought will have Vista on it already... Will people buy an upgrade for their +5 year old PC? I am sure many will but to me the big thing will be new computers.
Thanks to everyone who dropped by my blog and left comments etc - talk soon.
-mano
Looks like I already have it.
Aren't monopolies wonderful! Sure, people will get vista on their new pc's because they have no choice. Our monopoly on PC OS's ensures they pretty much have to accept whatever we choose to deliver to the OEM's.
I am not saying this is good/bad. I am just saying that this kind of forced adoption is somewhat meaningless. On the positive side, this may be the only way a ton of people get exposure to our new OS, and because of this increased exposure, might lead to a mild uptick in consumer PC demand.
On the negative side, this really doesn't do much to help our bottom line. Given that ~all PC's already ship with some variant of XP, we are already effectively collecting a "Microsoft OS Tax" on the world's PC run rate. The switch to Vista doesn't change this "Tax Rate" now does it? So our bottom line remains unchanged. The only way to make a material impact on our bottom line is to either "raise the Microsoft OS Tax (charge more for windows)" OR get people to "voluntarily pay the tax" by upgrading an existing machine with vista.
Will people buy an upgrade for their +5 year old PC? I am sure many will but to me the big thing will be new computers.
Back to the previous comment, here, you are asserting that "many" will voluntarily pay microsoft the windows tax a second time. They already paid this tax once when they purchased their PC ~5 years ago, and now, you think they will gladly pay us again? I am very skeptical that this will happen. Instead, I think the best that we can hope for is that some fraction of these people decide its time to purchase a new PC, and thats the most likely way for them to pay the tax a second time.
I don't know about you, but the thought of upgrading the OS on my PC horrifies me. Will it work again once I do this (Its barely working right now). I rarely am able to install software and have it work after the installation without other things breaking. I purchased a scanner last summer which includes all sorts of "crap-ware". The scanner was from HP, a brand new model, has "works with xp" stickers all over it, and sure enough, it caused me several hours of googling for help to patch my system back together again. You really think upgrading to Vista is going to be a pleasant experience? I just don't believe this.
But the real irony here, is that almost all such listed (Networking, Print, Installer, Internationalization, Search, File Management, Crypto) are finally getting to the basic competence levels, but everyone with a specific need has long gone third-party. And the rest like fonts, Gadgets/Sidebars, UI, Kernalizations, and Indigo can be pushed back to XP, making it even harder to justify Vista.
Still a good starting point for those without specific needs.
With the long gasp, the 7 versions confusion, and the bad management of Licensing 6.0 and Software Assurance (forcing onto the program), more and more corporates will upgrade, yes, but with new hardware. But the cycle is in their favor, 2000 is getting stale, better to skip XP and go Vista is the corporate reasoning. Not that Vista is enterprise-compelling unto itself, just a matter of timing.
PS - RSS "platform"??? - funny how Microsoft was loath to call the web a platform in the Netscape era, yet they will freely call RSS a "platform". Weird. Been noticing that on the Softie blogs, "RSS Platform" this and that. Ozzie'isms Web 2.0 sprinkle-angel-dust gonna kill that company if they aren't careful.
So will Vista take off? Sure, it has too, its destined too, like 95, ME, XP and yadda yadda before it, it merely replaces XP. Will it take time to convert everyone over? Sure, I mean thats a given. Will DRM screw things up, the more people are aware about it the possiblity it will be of a concern, is MSN worried about the hard core fan base or the billions of average joes.... hmm I'd say joe. And Joe isnt gonna have a clue either way.
To me Vista is just another hot video card on the market, yet, pretty soon games will require it, so i should probably consider getting it.
I think Apple will gain significant ground this year, that mere 5% will go up, Linux is great for servers, school grads and hacks but it isnt going home with the consumer any time soon, no without a champion. Apple owns Joe and is now about to speak to Joe on some equal footing when it comes to everyday pcs gettin on the web and doing good things. The Biz world will be tied to PC for a long while, enduring the many patches of life.
Why you don't need Vista: F.i.r.e.f.o.x.
More people will be exposed to Vista and it's graphical effects
than Apple has been able to do for OSx, The real competitor for MSFT is Linux, not an OS sold on overpriced hardware.
But go ahead and make your self feel better, the apple fans keep trying to convince the rest of us that they matter, and it's Linux that is actually making inroads into Microsofts territory.
how many of those exploits resulted in real damage to computers, or even could have? Since IE is so tied to the OS, almost any exploit in that code carries a much higher level of danger than Firefox is capable of.
And none of the FF exploits carried the problems of the WMF fiasco.
Overpriced? They're comparable - cheaper when your realize you don't need to buy lots of anti-virus stuff to be safe. Do a little shopping at Dell and compare feature for feature. Oh heck, these guys already did it for you.
http://mikemchargue.com/2006/01/price-deathmatc...
http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/wlg/4895
Matt,
Key difference between IE and FF - FF can draw web pages (mostly) the way the w3c says they ought to be drawn. IE does nothing of the kind.
Firefox is a rollin' locomotive with the hearts and minds of the web developers (thanks to the best JS, CSS, and HTML debugging tools). IE is ancient garbage. (I've seen the IE 7 beta 1 - no improvements to rendering so far).
I'm not going to wait for you. I am going to start locking your users out of my content based on useragent if IE 7 isn't STANDARDS COMPLIANT.
I don't even understand why MS makes a browser. First, they suck at it and it makes them appear incompetent. Second, they've failed to monetize their little chokehold so where is the value in dominating the market? It hasn't helped anyone, not even MS. So why do it? I don't get it.
I have security from Zonealarm firewall and a NAT router
I don't have money to waste
As far as IE 7 goes, apparently it will be available for XP anyway
and, I don't need unecessary desktop gloss
Windows XP works fine for me, and as I paid £70 for it last year and can't see vista being cheaper it just seems like a waste of money. The only reason for u/g would be if new games required it in order to run, or (don't listen to this point ms :) microsoft stopped supporting it, security patch wise which is hopefully not likely to happen.
To each his own, of course, but you already read my beef against Vista. The computer market is made much more complex by the immense dicotomy of skill levels among potential buyers. The range is truly bewildering, I realize. I find myself selfishly wishing the casual user could switch to the Mac, and leave the PC to people like me who understand and really need computers. Naturally, that would never work. There aren't enough of us to substain a company like Microsoft.
Still, it's extremely frustrating to deal with an OS configured to protect people from their own ignorance. I understand the reality of security well enough that I never get a virus, and spam, what's that? Why must I be ham-strung becauae most people tromp around the Internet with their digital flies unzipped?
Of course I'm being a bit silly here, but just enough to hopefully make the point. I develop Windows apps so why should I be defaulted to limited access? No, that's not what I need, and XP is bad enough about doing it. Everything I've seen on Vista tells me it will be much worse. Fortunately, I won't be changing laptops any time soon.
Scott
Every tech site or forum I visit is full of people bashing Windows XP and praising OSX because of its security, ease of use, good looks, etc. Microsoft now offers you something that is, at some things, equal to OSX and, in other ways, better than OSX and the answer they get is...
"Why do I need that for? XP is just fine."
Make up your mind. Either you stick with XP and quit complaining about it not being as pretty or secure as other options or you upgrade to Vista to get your often-requested "Mac-like" experience.
For someone like me that works 45 hours a week in front of a computer and then goes home to spend more time with computers, Vista is a huge welcome. Why would I deprive myself of something that will make using my computer easier, safer, and, as a consequence more enjoyable?
Price?
I bought XP Pro 3 years ago at $120.00 for an OEM copy. If you can't afford $120.00 once every 4-5 years, I suggest you quit your part time job at Starbucks and get a real job.
On the performance side of things, I have yet to hear a worthwhile argument. I have a Mac mini. It has a 1.6GHz processor and 512MB of RAM. And it is terribly slow. New software is never faster unless the previous version was slow due to bad coding practices/bugs (much like the initial release of OSX). Performance will always decrease, be it for OSes, office apps, graphic design apps, or anything else you can think of. If Microsoft made a stripped down version of XP to increase performance and sold it to you at today’s prices, the only people that will buy it are the handful of geeks that will dedicate an entire computer for running a single, specific task.
Also, you can turn off Aero Glass and get similar performance to XP. And since we all know that you don't care about eye-candy, you should be A-OK with that. You can enjoy your added security, stability, and integration though.
As an MSDN subscriber, I'm already getting a copy of Vista when it ships so I've already paid for my copy. No point in NOT upgrading. But you can bet I'm getting my parents their own copy. They won't have to deal with 3rd party AV and firewall software that does more harm than good.
As far as DRM is concerned, you might want to try heading over to your favorite search engine and looking up "FairPlay". While you are at it, see if you can find out anything about Big Brother Steve Jobs calling home every time you boot up your Mac.
Finally, when it comes to the unobtrusiveness of the OS, Microsoft will never win. I've heard people say that Windows should shut up and not bother users with patch installation notifications and the like. I've also heard people say that Windows should not do anything without their consent as they like to have complete control of their computer. You have lots of people at both extremes. You either satisfy one side or the other, or you keep it somewhere in between and mildly aggravate both.
Any corporate admin who adopts Vista in under a year is bat-shit insane.
I just feel ill at this point - Vista is like a date that is too eager - so in one's face about so much, yet so hard to discover. It's just an ugly mess.
"If I wanted a confusing mess of undiscoverable idiotic goo I'd have built a business around Apple and MAC OSX."
"Why oh why did Microsoft do this?"
So I'm wondering one thing. Even thought Vista takes a lot of Ghz and RAM to run fast. It ran just teh same on my computer. So why the hell can't Widnows make the sin run faster then? Or maybe it is because they want people to buy new computers, so they'll get even more money.
Bonus