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Apple have the ecosystem and the momentum. They've come from zero experience in the phone business to dominate the field in the space of 18 months, and seem to have unstoppable momentum. They have iTunes, they have VPN, they have Exchange integration - and they have the App Store.
Palm lost the plot long ago, and no cute CDMA-only/Sprint-only phone is going to save them, no matter how cool the device itself may be. In the next couple of years, virtually everybody but Apple will be out of the mobile business except for Nokia at the lower end, and the Chinese clone-phoners at the lowest of the low end (and that's only due to clone sales abroad and the peculiar proprietary Chinese wireless specs in China itself).
Palm have zero chance of staging a comeback. Zip, zero, nada - and I say this as an original Palm Pilot user back in 1996, who stuck with them for a long, long time. You need to step back and look at the bigger picture, and realize that Palm had the future in its hands, and fumbled the whole thing, and now Apple have come up with an unbeatable ecosystem, customer enthusiasm, and developer mindshare.
It's over.
It's not that far fetched to think that Palm could make a SMALL comeback.
Even if this is not "better than the iPhone" show me something from Motorola, Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, or LG that you would rather have. You don't have to be number 1 to be a successful company. I think Pepsi still makes a few dollars.
This isn't the Palm that screwed everything up. Palm is dead! Long live Palm!
There are still unknowns like pricing and to what degree the development community is going to rally around the new Palm OS. Most would agree that Sprint is a negative but how big remains to be seen. (Most said the same about AT&T with the iPhone.)
There's a ton of competition in this market and there are many niche segments. My French mobile is a Samsung which was free and a great touch-screen phone. It's no iPhone but it has some interesting features. For example I actually get over 30 channels of live TV streamed to it. This seemed silly at the time but it's amazingly good and this Spring I'll be watching the French Open on it since we don't have TV at home. The kids have watched their favorite program, Star Academy, in the back seat some nights as we drive home from dinner. Who knew?!
In my opinion, even with a better handset, nothing can come close now or in the near future to Apple with its App Store for the iPhone. Hopefully Palm is taking notes.
I love Apple and my iPhone, but I also love competition. It's what drives companies to experiment and innovate and the true winner is always the consumer. Hopefully Palm will be smart with the pricing they choose. I'm so excited to see what will be coming out of this market in the next 2-3 years!
Seems like with a market cap of around 400million Apple, Nokia or Microsoft would scoop up Palm and go about their business while grabbing the best features of the Pre and putting into their own OS.
But you aren't really giving me much.
"Are you surfing the web and alert comes up? Your web page doesn’t disappear. Really nice touch."
A nice touch compared to what? What phone makes your web page disappear when an alert comes up?
"Are you a developer? Everything is based on standard webstuff. Javascript. Et al."
Do you know many developers who prefer to develop web apps over mobile apps? Do you know about the inherent limitations in developing via the web for something that may not always be connecting to the web, or may have a slow or crappy connection sometimes?
I watched the videos and I didn't understand what you think is so revolutionary about this except that it's a chance to shit on the iPhone, something all the cool kids want to do.
- pricing(high price: "then it must be great" - low pricing: "value for money")
- branding for trust
- looks (can you show off with the device)
- function & features (people only use 10% of all features and functions)
- Availability
Will Palm be able to bring all of these?
Will Palm find enough developers with the right applications?
Will palm be able to have their device in all retail stores?
Will Palm ...
Even though the Palm Pre seems to be amazing, it will be difficult to catch up to the apple appstore experience.
Will be a very interresting year and its nice to have palm still fighting for a front seat in the game ;)
Cheers
Alexander
"Hi!, Scoble here for POGOPLUG! A revolutionary way to get access to all your files! Tell them Scoble sent you!
"Hi!, Scoble here for SONGSMITH! A revolutionary way to compose your own music! Tell them Scoble sent you!"
"Hi, Scoble here for PALM PRE! Better then the Nokia! Better than the iPhone! Tell the Scoble sent you!
I think you need to turn the camera on yourself when you do these commercials
- Matching iPhone cool: Zoom/unzoom, touch accelerometer, Wi-Fi
- Beating iPhone: contact integration, simpler Palm Pre apps, better camera, keyboard
- Weakness: Sprint, music
- Unknown: video, execution on delivery
The users clearly win with more mobile choices - real mobile options.
The loses include Nokia, Motorola, WinMob, RIM. Half-hearted solutions won't be competitive.
-Dash
"The biggest unknown is price, which went unmentioned during the demo. My assumption is that Palm (PALM) would try to take market share by coming in significantly lower than the $200 or so Apple wants for its iPhone. But when I ran that theory by Palm CEO Ed Colligan, he looked at me liked I’d peed on his rug. “Why would we do that when we have a significantly better product,” he asked, then walked away."
http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090108/live-f...
Apple has crazy momentum, crazy installed base, and a crazy amount of apps for it. Palm has a lot of catching up to do - and they're not going to do it easily with a more expensive phone and no ecosystem.
Is that an inside joke or something?
Microsoft hasn't even got off the ground yet. Microsoft's attempt to compete with the iPhone, WM7 and WM8 hasn't been fully revealed yet.
As for the Zune, it does compete very well against iPod classic.
If Microsoft is able to bring Windows Mobile up to par, a good advantage of that platform will be that there will be a variety of devices. Although their original PMC strategy didn't work, that is an important factor in the phone market. Some people just want a touch screen, some people want a keyboard, some people want a keypad. Some people want to use a stylus, some people want to use their fingers.
Nice to see some enthusiasm behind your view and I agree and disagree here and there with your points. The main problem though is no "App Store", no "iTunes", etc.
No stable growing ecosystem, no developer base as of yet etc.
Apple is setup to rule for the next decade. They may get somewhere in the next few years but they have to take out RIM or WinMo ... I think they are chained to obscurity myself.
I've got the greatest respect for Jon Rubenstein. He's an outstanding engineering manager. But he's got a long uphill climb if he's going to take market share from Apple.
Sounds like the phone is designed to run on Sprint's system. That means they'd need to design a different version for GSM if the product is to be sold internationally.
Apple already has 10,000 App Store apps and developers are making money by developing for Apple. Getting developer mindshare with be a bit of a challenge.
There are a lot of people who would love to have an iPhone but are put off with the hefty AT&T monthly contract rates. That's why the iPod Touch is selling so well. It does a lot of what the iPhone can do without the AT&T contract.
If Rubenstein could convince Sprint to offer a monthly rate that's about half (or less) of AT&T's rate then he would get people to take a look at his product. That's the only way I see a newcomer making serious incursions into this fast growing market.
There's no such word as EXPECIALLY . .
"Microsoft, RIM, and expecially Apple"
Don't give up your day job.
I remember this comment about original iPhone:
"The biggest hole that Apple has left for its competitors is a really really really lame software developer platform (IE, non-existent, iPhone developers can’t even get data from the accelerometers on the iPhone, which really is lame)" --Robert Scoble
or
"But, why is Steve Jobs telling iPhone developers to pound sand? Dave Winer posits that Apple isn’t opening up the iPhone because they don’t have to." -- Robert Scoble
Suddenly your mind is changed? Damn!
I just can't see paying money for something with a keyboard I don't know how to type on. With physical keyboards, I can remap in software and usually move the physical keys. With a phone, there's no way to touch-type (so even if there's a keyboard layout setting it's useless), and the keys have supplementary info on them like 1-2-3 on E-R-T (so even if you can move the keys there's no point).
Is this better or worse than Apple? I don't know. The iPhone has a software-only keyboard, but no Dvorak setting. Personally I think they're all idiots.
I admit that Palm is doing a few things the proper and more intelligent way: the Website: Totally people oriented, clean, smart, colorful and smart and now the Pre, it seems that some things are changing at Palm. But please don't mix Palm and Apple.
Now two ex-Apple employees are putting Palm into the spotlight again. Life is strange....
Now two ex-Apple employees are putting Palm into the spotlight again. Life is strange....
*Relax, take a deep breath (or a donut) and wait a year before you even consider this one as a competitor.
Waiting to see what the reviews say once it's released before I make my mind up but it does look amazing. Way to go Palm...
See, Palm showed what it is and will always, be a user-focused operating system, even though it took an inept management team 2-3 years to realize it. Even in the Treo’s dying days - which continue every day as my friend Om astutely points out - people still like using it! Something which very few of the above can claim of their mobile experiences.
For full comment:
http://www.joshbaylin.com/2009/01/palm-its-the-...
Apple will dominate in the US, given Nokia's weak marketing strategy and a beautiful product, RIM will continue strong, and outside the US Nokia will remain well positioned because of its vast offering, far from "low end". Apple will bite some from Nokia's market share, and competition will be fierce. In the end, consumers will be winners.
Unfortunately, this Pre device will not save Palm. They are already too far gone to be saved. I can't imagine the Pre would be anywhere close to the experience delivered by the iPhone. Or even a Blackberry Curve for that matter. Get real. I hope they paid you a lot for your endorsement. More evidence of their failed strategy.
Now it looks like it's Palm's turn. The doomsayers may be right, but it's very bold of them to be so adamant. Apple came back from the dead, so did Mozilla (nee Netscape).
The world needs a real alternative to the iPhone. Markets like more than one player. In computer OSes there's Windows, OS X and Linux.
In the ultrasmartphone market, it's still really just the iPhone. Android should be the second, but after that, with RIM bumbling, the door is wide open.
Palm has a distinct advantage over the others because it has experience in the market, a thriving developer community, an app store, and still many loyal users.
Granted none of the current apps on Palm's app store will likely work on the Pre doesn't matter. The infrastructure is already in place and working. That's a big advantage over the other contenders for the #3 sport in the ultrasmartphone market.
I'll have to bookmark this thread and come back in a couple of years, because someone is going to be very wrong, either Scoble or the Doomsayers. And I suspect it won't be Scoble.
Palm always sees the light AFTER Apple. Remember Newton ... then Palm. Now iPhone ... then this Palm Pre. The difference now is that the iPhone is well established with a 2 year lead and getting cheaper and better. Why pay $399 + 2 Year contract when you can get iPhones for $99 (refurbs) or $199 new.
Now, if you don't want or can't get AT&T then ... this is your option.
The Palm will go back to its place as a niche player per se.
The only chance it has is for Sprint to fully subsided it. Look around there are many iPhone wannabees and everyone is fighting to survive the recession and the end result will be a lot of good stuffs coming out.
And by the time the Pre is launched it will be a has been.
One more thing no one knows its user's experience and every bloggers blogged on the strengthen of the presentation.
That's all he said, by the way. He didn't predict the death of the iPhone. He didn't predict that the Palm Pre was going to take over the world. He simply stated that, based on his time with both phones, the Pre offered a better user experience.
Who should be taking the deep breath, here?
As a software company owner, I am just happy to hear that the browsers on these devices are getting better! What a great thing. We will be looking into an iPhone optimized app and one for the Palm now!
Welcome back Palm. We've missed you.
It does look nice and the Centro was a nice start to a great comeback. It's just hard to believe that the company has gotten that failure trait out of their DNA. I lost track, but it started with 3Com (3-who? exactly.). And it kept going with selling the Palm OS and name and having to buy it all back. Again, the details start to get blurry because it just got too ridiculous to believe.
Saying that it's all HTML/CSS is all well and good but I want details. What does it take to develop for this platform. When can we see some sample code, etc.
Thanks!
Micah
Interesting that, despite the class-leading performance, Palm said they still have performance work to do. That tells me that the current demo handsets are clocked at a speed that won't deliver adequate battery life, despite having a CPU a generation ahead of currently shipping smartphones.
http://senseapplied.com/index.php/palm-pre-vs-n...
And I suspect it won’t be Scoble.
I'd look at history, say NetMeeting, Winnov, UserLand and "RSS will save the world", Visual Basic, Second Life, UMPC/Tablets, Longhorn, Podtech, and future-tense, Fast Company.
I agree with you.. Your headline nails it (maybe it's a tad early to add Google to that list)? Honestly, I didn't expect too much, but I was hoping they could prove folks wrong. But after reading a bit, and seeing the press demo via YouTube and some other places, it's pretty clear this webOS is something to be excited about.
The importance of software ease of use is hugely under-rated in lots of different areas of technology. And getting developers back on the Palm bandwagon is key.
Looks like Palm addressed both and seems like they will pass with flying colors.
Very interesting indeed.
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/wtf_origin...
No they don't. People want to buy phones, the "smartness" is relative. As extra phone functionalities and text-messaging are commonplace, the "smartphones" of old are no longer "smart". With even the smugly-marketed iPhones going Wally World, it's all a commodity, there are no Smartphones, just phones, low-end to high-end.
Some want high-end Swiss Army Knives with everything packed in, and others want just the basics. As tons of LGs, Samsungs, Motorolas, HTCs, Fujistus, Nokias and Sony Ericsson's out there. Some people want massive robot-looking expensive gamer systems, others just want basic corporate laptops, some people only need a 1 gig SD, others want a 2 TB SDXC. The middle-level Business Class is always a far greater market than the edge-market that buys the latest $500 video card. Being Dell, you well know that. :)
Palm is just another player in a big ocean, that has seemingly abandoned everything before. Whole lot of substance that has to be filled in before some gee-whiz demos pan out, pricing I suspect is gonna be a killer, they won't ramp to market, going "we are better" and price themselves out. Plus the whole Verizon-Alltel deal adds a wrinkle. Way too early.
Before the iPhone, nobody expected that Apple would sell 12 million phones (or whatever the # is these days). They got there by making a platform that was easier to use.
The Palm webOS looks promising on that front, and at least based on the information that's out there at the moment, it looks like app development will be pretty well thought out.
So, in the end, it's still early, yes. But it seems to me that the webOS will be a reason why this will stand out in a crowded market.
Will be fun to watch.
What, indeed, are you smoking?
The simple fact is that Palm hasn't had a good idea since the PalmPilot. (The Treo was Handspring's idea.)
This MIGHT be a great idea - I don't know yet - but to assume that Palm has the tech expertise, the management, or the distributors to pull off a real success here is ridiculous.
If this came out three years ago, it would have changed everything. Now Apple has the inertia and the fashion factor. Palm's best hope at this point is to be bought out by Motorola...
That's the most evil idea and I wish I had thought of it. Motorola can start chasing another mobile operating system to augment its social networking dreams. Maybe they can bring back the Foleo too and take over the Netbook market.
Anyway, I'm a big fan of Jeff Hawkins and I am always impressed that he essentially sold the same company to 3Com twice. First, he sold PalmPilot to 3Com/US Robotics and later sold Handspring and Treo to the same folks. He should do it one more time and call it a hat trick.
Britney Waldron
http://waldronentertainment.wordpress.com
I might be retarted but Apple tried to sell us this one and it didn’t work.
Mobile processing power didn’t increased that much on the meantime.
I would be very surprised to read their demos with smooth transitions and animations, their apps (calendar, address book, pictures..) are actually powered by a javascript engine. It must be a plain old C++ (or similar), the only tools which deliver speed and small memory requirement.
Javascript “optimizers” are far from delivering the same efficiency that Java virtual machines do (like the one used for Android).
If the new Palm Pré apps are 1MB larger and 100% slower than their equivalent on the iPhone, it will show quickly.
Speed is important.
The only metric people feel when they actually enjoying using a device is the responsiveness of the interaction they have with it.
Which brings to us the same dilemma that Apple had: developers wants to get to the core of the device, say accessing the accelerometer, the full gestures, the keypad, etc.
So how long before we see WebOs apps and Native Pré apps?
--
Is Synergy is going to sync?
Sync is one of the most difficult task to get it right on the whole IT industry.
And as time fly, the task becomes harder and harder because of the number of providers we use to store “our digital things”.
Is the “combine everything in one” approach is really going to help or confuse people? Is merging all conversations into one a nice move?
I hope Palm did a lot of user testing before investing massively in their vision.
I hope they’re right and will be delighted if they are, but I will not buy a Pre to test it myself.
---
Kudos to Palm engineers to improve the User Interface on a mobile device.
But is nice screens and smart gestures will be enough? It remains to be seen as I never seen a proof yet.
However repainting and changing the display always been a good trick to have people coming in.
Also why have you dropped the stylus?
Why are you doing the same mistake as Apple as using 1dpi fingers on extremly high density screen.
You’ve been there before with the Palm 1 and its 160x160 pixels screen. So you know how and why precision matters.
On all your (crappy) videos we see people “missing” their target!
Let’s face it: fingers are fat and greasy.
I’m not saying they are not useful : a lot of Palm users were loosing their stylus and using their fingers instead, and were complaining the buttons were too small.
However we still don’t see somebody writing with their hands. Everybody use a pen.
Today the input resolution didn’t increased since the first Palm. The buttons are just nicer on a high definition screen.
I think there is a tradeoff between broad precision and finer control.
Palm was one of the few company able to accomodate both because of their legacy (the stylus and its gestures). For once a weakness could have been turned into an advantage.
The other company who got a chance to make something remarkable is now Microsoft with its mobile OS. They have a legacy stylus interface too.
However with the hype of the touchscreen it’s unlikely. And Microsoft never delivered an engaging interface.
Palm did. Once. A long time ago.
The three inputs fingers, keyboard and stylus are just mandatory for a modern mobile UI.
- The fingers for efficiency (always there, touch is quick),
- the keyboard because when you’re moving it’s easier (in the bus, the car, etc.) and because you have the other inputs you don’t need to have keys with several meanings.
- the stylus because it give you precision. Then you can draw, you can write, you can change the width of this excel spreadsheet, etc. You can DO more.
-----
What we’re seeing here with Palm annoucement is not even good PR.
Where are the videos with the crisp display showing fingers explaining how the device works? Like the ones we’ve seen an hour after the end of the iPhone keynote.
Before the iPhone ships people knew already how it worked because they had the opportunity to see a ton of tutorials about it.
The iPhone is not more intuitive than anything else, it’s the way the learning occurs: by friends saying “look how I’m smart, let me do a demo to you”.
The same trick has been done with the first iPod: you were able to use it on the web.
I cannot believe people coming from Apple have forgotten this.
Palm would have been bold by announcing the product and saying: “it’s so important that we will discontinue our Treo range as soon as the Pre is shipped” to show their focus.
Do we really care if your stock price was up? It’s just prove that stock prices are meaningless and do not reflect the true value of a company. Do we really need another proof to see the financial system and stock markets are broken?
Just another trick.
Please Palm executives, do us a favour, stop repeating “Palm is back”. The only things it sells is your weakness.
As a long time Palm user, I would be happy to believe once more your greatest development kit (the one starting with riddles such as “How can a gorilla learn to fly?” or “How do you fit a mountain in a teacup?”)
http://www.accessdevnet.com/docs/zenofpalm/Enli...
Best Regards.
Thibault
You need to separate hysteria and hope from market reality.
Will this be a hit? We'll see when it ships.
talk some more here http://www.PalmPreForum.org
The Palm Pre is "buggy". Play with it more.
The iPhone is solid. It has set the standard, and likely still has a long way to go before anyone can catch up. Can't deny Apple elegance and quality.
B
They need emu and some PDA model of Pre, that market is still a big niche for them.