What would you think if there was a P2P stack in your HDTV? See any of that at CES?
Goebbels
· 2 years ago
Translation: I've already handed my own ass to my self a few times today, I might as well do it again with another bold, absurd prediction because hit whoring is nothing without being provocative and stupid.
Robert Scoble
· 2 years ago
gwhiz: I haven't seen it myself, but I hear several manufacturers were showing TVs with computers built in. So, I'm sure that could come -- if there were an obvious network to build in. Verisign, because of its deal with Adobe, seems to have taken the lead there.
I'm not sure I want computers built into my TV, though. They change way faster than I'm going to update my screen (I expect I'll keep my 60-inch screen for five to 10 years, while I could see updating my Xbox and HD-DVD and Media Center PC every two to three years).
Chris Cavanagh
· 2 years ago
Is the movie streamed or downloaded? Think I still prefer the idea of IPTV...
Separate question... Have you seen anything of what eCoupled are showing? (wireless power stuff). Not much news online about that yet... :o)
Robert Scoble
· 2 years ago
Goebbels: so, you own Netflix stock, do you? In the past when I've been obviously full of shit you've been among the first to have fun with me and poke holes in my theories. I notice you haven't done that here.
Robert Scoble
· 2 years ago
Chris: downloaded, but can start playing like it's streaming.
Nope, haven't seen that yet. I'll try to look them up tomorrow when I get the whole day to walk the show floor.
Larry Myers
· 2 years ago
Scoble, a few glaring questions:
1. How big are these movies, even with streaming, how long do we have to wait from selection until watching? Probably longer than walking to the blockbuster down the street from me.
2. How much does it cost? If it's more than Netflix or Blockbuster then no deal.
3. Is the selection going to be better?
Robert Scoble
· 2 years ago
Larry:
1) Worst case, they say, is two hours, and most HD movies will be playable within a few minutes. Compared to three days that my slowest Netflix movie took, that's pretty good. My closest video rental is a 10 minute drive, plus it usually takes 20 minutes to get in, find a movie, and get out of the store, plus another 10 minute drive home.
2) It's free to whatever the content owner wants to charge. Agreed there.
3) Yet to be seen. One thing is that they are doing deals with both big studios as well as small guys like me so you'll probably see more content eventually. But, today, far less.
Goebbels
· 2 years ago
"Goebbels: so, you own Netflix stock, do you? In the past when I’ve been obviously full of shit you’ve been among the first to have fun with me and poke holes in my theories. I notice you haven’t done that here."
Are you on crack? Today is the day for you to pull sh!t out of your ass, isn't it?
You don't know me, you don't know sh1t about me.
I'm not a subscriber or an investor! Your prognostication is lame, pathetic, and wrong. I'm mocking you, making fun of you, scorning you!
Robert Scoble
· 2 years ago
Ahh, I got that on your first post. I was hoping you'd actually turn intelligent, but I guess we're not going to get that from you today.
1. Verisign's product is a peer-assisted CDN, not a P2P app.
2. Bundling of apps doesn't mean you install the app, turn it on, and share your bandwidth.
3. As you said, others are doing it -- a standard bundling agreement somehow makes this one better and magically kills off the leading brick-and-mortar and virtual competitor yet you don't even know pricing or the full model, just that it's faster? Get a clue.
Goebbels
· 2 years ago
"I was hoping you’d actually turn intelligent, but I guess we’re not going to get that from you today."
We're not getting it from you. Why should I be any different?
Dave Goodman
· 2 years ago
What makes you think Netflix is frozen in its ship-a-disk paradigm? I'm sure they'd love to support a P2P system. They already have a customer base and the system for recommending and allowing selections of movies and a billing system. The only difference would be in delivery, which is easier with P2P than shipping DVDs. Would you rather pay per movie, or continue to pay a flat monthly charge?
JamesM
· 2 years ago
Robert, Its a great idea. I like having it now not later.
But, look at how p2p networks work? You search for content download a torrent and someone has to be sharing the content you want.
This means we are going to be running a client which is always on and always ready to share this content? That is crazy, how long before someone figures out how to exploit this scheme and because we are bypassing our firewalls(software and hardware) we are leaving a hole(s) open all the time.
BillSaysThis
· 2 years ago
I've never used any P2P othe than a brief test year ago when it first came out with Napster and don't at ll care for the security implications. So if this P2P stuff comes with Flash and I cn't not install it then I'll live without Flash.
met
· 2 years ago
Dave, I think Robert meant that the DVD rental business is about to die. ;) So what's new about it. Its just like how the VCD business or the VHS rental died a while back.
met
· 2 years ago
Hey Robert, how about Vongo or similar? Were you comparing them too?
Sam Purtill
· 2 years ago
The only problem with this Netflix Killer is how it will be embraced by the non-geeks. Until Apple or some other company comes out with an application that makes it so easy to download HD-DVD via P2P "sharing" that the users will not even be able to differentiate it from watching a YouTube click. Of course an HD-DVD quality movie will take much longer to download, but there is still that useability gap that needs to be bridged. Anyways, I still think NetFlix is a great business and until someone crosses that bridge, the NetFlix/Blockbuster model will remain extremely profitable. :)
Jason
· 2 years ago
I can't say I agree Robert. Some cable companies are already streaming video (albeit standard def) to their customers a la PPV. This hasn't killed Netflix (yet?) and it's already in place (if you have the right cable box) and doesn't even require broadband!
Peter
· 2 years ago
Some people actually like going out to the video store rather than ordering them online. I LIKE going to the store to handle the videos. I like interacting with people, not computers. I miss the old days when people were satisfied with a 22" TV, VCR and basic cable.
This society is all about gimme, gimme, gimme. I want, I want, I want.
ET
· 2 years ago
It's just a ploy to get me to buy one of those fancy HDTV's!! I am not falling for it!! Long live my twenty something inch CRT TV. ;-)
Megan Cunningham
· 2 years ago
I think this is a question of what's the horizon, not if it's going to happen but when, and by whom. Anyone familiar with the platform or format wars knows the best product doesn't always win. It's who has the marketing strategy to capture the biggest share first.
In this case, the content parties on board is really one of the trickiest parts. No one wants to be first; but, as was shown with napster, they can't afford to ignore it or be last.
Apple TV poses an extremely interesting solution. We shot close-up guerilla video blog of it today (after a ton of PR negotiations--)...and interviewed a bunch of established but cynical macheads in our podcast Would love your thoughts.
Megan Cunningham
· 2 years ago
oh yeah, and the 720p vs 1080i is a non issue. the first version of FCP HD only supported 1 format. Today they support over 80 different "flavors" of HD.
Matt Langdon
· 2 years ago
If anything, I think Blockbuster's new program may kill Netflix. If they can get a better website - maybe team with IMDB - how can Netflix compete when you can take your movies back to the store and pick up replacements? I agree with Sam about the embracing factor too. So many people still drive to Blockbuster because they had trouble embracing Netflix.
LayZ
· 2 years ago
Does the average Netflix/Blockbuster customer have the bandwidth, patience and the necessary equipment to download these movies and ultimately display them on their TV monitor? Is is braindead simple to use? Is the library as exhaustive as Netflix/Blockbuster? If not, Netflix has nothing to worry about in the near term.
Again, Scoble, you are basing your opinions on your abnormal view of the world.
Michael Markman
· 2 years ago
@20. Jason, Comcast has been offering a limited number of HDTV titles On Demand for a while now.
Backstory: The whole cable VOD business started out as an attempt to kill the video store. It stalled when the studios wouldn't give them the titles in the same window (distribution timeframe) as the video store. Studios had a fine cash cow selling DVDs. They didn't want to risk it.
But that's changing. You see more and more attempts to move to what the industry calls "day and date" which means that VOD, DVD, and soon DL or Streaming will become available on the same day and date.
Mark Cuban is a strong proponent of day and date. He's even putting theatrical release into the same window as all the others.
I agree w/Robert that long-term, the physical distribution of disks is going away. If you want to make money... try and hone in on just how long that term is. What do you think?
LayZ
· 2 years ago
add to that, no normal person wants to watch a movie, in their home, on anything other than their TV.
Tom Kirkham
· 2 years ago
Ok, I will tell you what is wrong with this... VERISIGN. Remember, they were the ones that tried to hijack the Internet when they redirected everyone to their properties when the user tried to go to a dead website.
They may get some traction with distributing through Adobe, but their hands are not clean either - download something of theirs sometime - loaded with their own spyware.
The mechanism may work, but it will not be through these two.
Corrine
· 2 years ago
I don't like the sounds of this deal one bit. Its bad enough Adobe tries to push the Yahoo! toolbar with their software but P2P? Thanks, but no thanks. This one time I have to disagree. Besides, there are still a lot of people in this country with a dialup connection. Not everyone has the latest machine and a high-speed connection.
If Adobe is going to be pushing a piece of software to be installed on MY computer with ADOBE's flash player to lower VERISIGN's bottom line, I damn well want a cut of the cost savings.
Also, I can't even put into words how little trust I have for Verisign. Most people I know only trust them just barely enough to do the business they have to do with them on a corporate level, and no further. Their little DNS hijinks Tom mentioned only go to drive home how little respect or care they have for Internet users.
I would never, ever, ever, ever willingly sign up for a service from Verisign as a non-corporate customer.
Plus, half of Netflix's worth as a company is the stellar work they put into their web site. They are leaders in their field in this area and continue to drive the standard higher and higher.
Aaron
· 2 years ago
Robert I have to agree with you. You're 100% correct. Netflix is dead, not doa like AppleTV mind you. :-) Maybe in 10-15 years. Well Netflix won't be dead, but their current model will be. A very small percentage of people have the ability to download that type of content right now. Are you aware of the massive # of people still on dial up?! Most people don't need those massive speeds and won't get there for a while. By then who knows what Netflix will have decided to do, there have been rumours for years floating about Netflix and Tivo or other content delivery folks. Good prediction, just a tad early. ;-)
Jake
· 2 years ago
The Blockbuster vs Netflix ad is interesting, but when I watch it, I laugh. I won't go back to Blockbuster - they sh*t where they ate once too often - on their customers - to regain my business.
My memories of Blockbuster from years back were that they started out by collecting too much private information on the customer, the video selection was horrible, new releases were sold out, it was a waste of time trying to find something bearable after seeing that the movies you wanted weren't there, they argued when you requested a rental refund on a bad tape, the stores had inadequate parking, they stacked the checkout lanes with candy (bad for kids), late fees, rewind fees. Why give them any satisfaction anymore?
I don't view Netflix as VOD. It is more or less a background treat. Build up a queue from a vast collection of movies (and other DVD content) and let it come. Maintain the queue periodically. The subscription is relatively cheap. The overall process is easy and relatively painless. So far the relationship has seemed fair. And it feels as if the average price per rental is low.
Contrast that with VOD systems that charge close to theater prices (7.99? 8.99? 9.99?, 10.99? per movie) with a DRM system that requires you watch it within 72 hours of receipt and that once you start watching it, it will expire in 24 hours. It's just a different thing altogether.
And, don't forget, that AT&T, Qwest, Comcast and all of the other telco/cableco broadband providers get their way on Net Neutrality. So, whatever Verisign does, they get their cut of it as well. Plus, since they're video delivery service providers as well as your pipe provider, they're in competition with these services. Will that hurt? Maybe.
Jason B.
· 2 years ago
Holy Jeepers, the big news here is the fact that Adobe is already bloating and misusing a web technology that under Macromedia's watch was ALWAYS very very scrutinized for it's size and many features never made it in the flash player simply because Macromedia was paying a lot of attention to how many users were able to download the latest player in a certain amount of time.
The second reason this has me worried is we all know how long it takes to open a PDF file, hell, there are even liposuction techniques out there that will kill 90% of the adobe readers bloat (and thus loading time of pdf files) (just regsvr32 /u a bunch of dlls).
Now we have to wonder how great a platform the flash player will be when Adobe stuffs it full of garbage to the highest bidder. Why can't they just keep the relevant technologies in their format? Create a new standard and don't kill the thriving flash community over it. Bittorrent works fine, but thanks. You can even use RSS via bittorrent clients if you all didn't know. You get home and you have you content already downloaded.
Shawn Oster
· 2 years ago
OK, while you're dreaming...
- How much does it cost? Unless it can beat the Netflix price point people are more than happy to wait 2 days.
- Does it have the social aspect? People get a kick out of seeing what their friends are watching.
- How is it better than Microsoft's Video Marketplace? You can, today, download and watch HD movies via your XBox 360.
If anyone is going to be a Netflix killer it's the Video Marketplace + XBox 360 or iTunes + Apple TV, depending on who you want to sell your soul to.
Seriously, have you never used the HD movie download service on the XBox 360?
Brett Nordquist
· 2 years ago
Everyone has their reasons for choosing Netflix or Blockbuster or whatever else. I chose Netflix for selection. So for me any new service like this would have to match what Netflix has. Also, the Netflix community and uncanny ability to find shows I might lake based on past rentals.
Maybe down the road Netflix is dead. But I don't hear a lot of people who are unhappy with their service. In fact, are die hard Netflix fans who won't just jump.
Fred Davis
· 2 years ago
Blockbuster censors titles and edits videos to make them more "wholesome." How can something be more "whole" when you take something away?! Censorship is anti-American! Netflix is way better on that score.
As to the P2P challenge, Intel "sneaked" me on something like this 10 years ago! Where is it now? Hmmmm... I agree with the comment by Tom that the biggest problem with this scenario is Versign. You know them, the GoDaddy killers! Verisign is a Soviet-style bureaucracy that is about as innovative as a rocking chair. I can’t wait to see what kind of Orwellian DRM they saddle it with. Big Verisign is watching what you watch… and don’t try to watch it on more than one TV, either!
Then there's value... if you cycle through a lot of Netflix movies every month you can push the rate to a buck a rental... Comcast OnDemand wants about $4 per view, so it's cheaper to rent from Netflix despite the convenience of OnDemand.
Plus, the installed base of DVD players, and the long cycle of getting consumers to change their habits ensures at least a bit more life to the DVD business - both sales and "rentals."
But here's the main reason it will be hard to kill Netflix: in a company as successful as Netflix the real value of the company is in their brand. For some public consumer-facing companies the brand makes up over 50% of the value of the company. Notice that their name is not DVD-flix, or PostOfficeFlix. They have a brand that would easily translate to distribution via the net. And their rating system, content, recommendation engine, etc. are other key assets that will make it easier for them to extend their brand and compete effectively against other companies who want to be in the business of distributing movies to consumers, whatever the method.
Someday, many years from now, I think IPTV will be the main type of TV distribution, making traditional cable and satellite obsolete. It will be the end of TV networks as we know them today, as well as heralding a new era of TV advertising and revenue models… but more on that another time.
Grant
· 2 years ago
With the connections speeds and hardware that are most common today (think normal population) I have to say that you are incorrect in this being the netflix/bb killer. Other companies have/are trying this same download approach, however its just not working out. Do I wait hours and hours downloading a movie onto my machine that I can't take anywhere (all the while taking up my bandwidth)? Or do I just fill up my queue and enjoy movies as they roll in, and maybe take them to a friends house?
Goebbels
· 2 years ago
"If anything, I think Blockbuster’s new program may kill Netflix. If they can get a better website - maybe team with IMDB - how can Netflix compete when you can take your movies back to the store and pick up replacements?"
Just the opposite: BlockBuster is losing money hand over first with its coupons and the costs of trying to figure out how to handle these returns, etc...
People should remember that Netflix is actually an extremely small company with a very modest userbase that makes tons of profit, almost prints money...
Yes, it doesn't seem like their subscribers are growing fast enough to be a true mainstream, largescale market and yes, someday (someday way in the future well after MUSIC first transforms into a primarily digital business) downloads will be competitive... Until, Netflix makes money and can invest in that future.
galeal zino
· 2 years ago
P2P is superior distribution tech. But the key in this segment is the pre-transaction user experience -all the steps it takes us to decide we want video x. Have to do that at least as well as NetFlix and Blockbuster to even make the distribution efficiencies relevant. And agree with Ian that Blockbuster just took nice step in improving the pre-transaction user experience, raising the bar that much further.
conedude13
· 2 years ago
I don't have a netflix account and do not rent movies. I usually just see them when they are out in the theater and, if i like the movie, I'll buy it the week it comes out on DVD. But there are always movies out there that you are not sure if you want to pony up the cash to catch it at the movies, and are more willing to rent it. If this P2P-type network starts getting better, i think i will definitely look into getting an account.
Netflix does already have the user base to make the switch as well as a great user interface on their website. Depending on what is out there at the time all of this P2P-type networks start taking off I'll have to wait to make my decision on which service to choose. But if netflix stayed the same, the market gets flooded with P2P movie download services, netflix lowers their prices, I would totally go with Netflix. But i'm sure that the competitors will come out with something comparable, so i will totally check out the P2P service when everything is all ready to go.
In the mean time, you guys are going to have a lot of home network updating to do. Or are you going to sit in front of your computer and watch all of your movies? The 360 streams some stuff and the iTV thing will be coming out. But I have purchased and tested the D-Link Media player with TVersity media server and love it and recommend it to all of you. Read my review here.
michael Schumacher
· 2 years ago
Pure and utter bullshit......sort of expect that from an ex softy man. What did they give you? Shares of gadgets to write that crap?
MS
Robert P.
· 2 years ago
Well, Netflix has been around long enough that I remember the big white envelopes in which they used to ship movies, yet it just hit its peak recently enough that Blockbuster is just getting into the business.
So, I would expect it to be another decade before something like what you are describing becomes widespread enough to cause damage. People like my parents, that live in a town of 500 in the middle of nowhere won't hear of this until 2010 probably.
Ben Winzenz
· 2 years ago
I disagree with you on this as well, Robert. No doubt the idea sounds cool, but as many others have mentioned, I don't believe that the infrastructure is in place to support a model like this yet. Are there people that own HD TV's that have computers hooked up to them? Absolutely, but I bet the percentage of people that are set up like that isn't very large, and the folks that do have this setup are likely fairy technically savvy. I also have the same feelings about Verisign that others have mentioned, and would likely choose not to install any P2P tool from them. If Adobe chooses to bundle it in with Flash Player in the future, that may mean that Flash no longer gets installed on my systems.
I don't think NetFlix and Blockbuster have anything to worry about in the short-term. By the time something like this would cause any worry, I'd bet that their distribution model will have already changed to accomodate it.
daddydoodaa
· 2 years ago
Blockbuster and Netflix will be around for quite some time. They may go out of business for other reasons, but not because of this "Netflix Killer".
Even with braodband many people like the "low tech", kid-friendly, ease of use, and portability of DVD and the DVD Store.
I (or my wife) can get disc one of season one of The Shield online from Blockbuster. I watch it one my $90 DVD player. Then return it to the store down the street. Let my 3 young kids loose in the kid section of store to pick out a title - a DVD of episodes of Lazytown. My wife returns disc two of season two of Gilligan's Island (I loved it as a kid and my kids love it.) and gets The Devil Wears Prada to take over to a friends house for a night with the girls. We exchange the old movies and walk out with the new ones;. We put Lazytown in the $129 DVD player in the van and head to Grandma's house. No money exchanged. Disc two of season one of The Shield will arrive in a day along with whatever in the queue. Plus, something else is already in... It's easy and everyone's happy.
Suburban excitement...
michael Schumacher
· 2 years ago
stories like this are put out each and every year at this time. What is really bullshit is the "Steve Jobs" syndrome as we are literally force fed products that have no direct correlation to real life (at least at lauch) and then have to put up with scores of attempts to legitimize they're value because some idiot blogger has a few free drinks in them and gets all caught up in the hype of a certain product (that they probably were given for free)and then fail to do any research on the impact of it in the marketplace.
WAKE UP AND REPORT THE NEWS......DON'T CREATE IT
but since the majority of the comments here have flamed you for that I'm sure you are well aware of it by now.
Asshole.
M
kirk
· 2 years ago
Scoble - in one of your comments you mentioned Verisign is in negotiations with "both studios". Ah, you do realize there are more than two studios, right? And that studios can pretty much make or break this sort of new distribution system, regardless of how cool it is.
Then there's the DRM issue, which pretty much dictates whether or not consumers will actually find a system like this useful/usable.
You might want to take a short nap before your next post. It's starting to look like sleep deprivation and CES overload have turned off your critical thinking.
Ryan
· 2 years ago
Robert, Netflix doesn't have to negotiate any copyright deals, and we all already have DVD players hooked up to our TVs. Those two things right there -- copyrights and getting a new device into the home and hooked up -- are huge friction for VeriSign, Apple and all the other Netflix competitors.
Yes Netflix as we know it today will eventually go away. No one argues that. The questions are WHEN and WHO. You've not made the gase it will be "SOON" and "VERISIGN." Not by a long shot.
met
· 2 years ago
If people are willing to walk over to the mailbox to ship a netflix envelope, they wouldn't have problems installing a software.
Michael
· 2 years ago
Um, Robert, I hate to rain on this particular parade, but..
...dude, it's VeriSign!
Pissed off Pundit
· 2 years ago
And a year or so ago, FTC fined people for doing that and considered it "Spyware"... Go figure.
Joseph A di Paolantonio
· 2 years ago
The combination of DirecTV and TiVo [DirecTiVo] ;-) killed Netflix for me 8 years ago. I see a movie advertised that looks interesting, I add it to the TiVo wishlist, and it gets recorded whenever and I watch it or dump it to DVD and then watch it whenever. If I really want it as soon as the DVD is released, chances are the movie is on PPV at the same time, and I get it then. Often, the ancillary shows about the movie also played on some cable channel or another, and TiVo gets those too if I do the wishlist as a "keyword" rather than as a "title".
I've been amazed since my first introduction to TiVo that the adoption has been so low. Perhaps the same will be true of these newer services as well. Mainstream adoption of revolutionary technologies is often much slower than early adopters believe possible.
BTW, on a related but different point, TiVo didn't give me the ability to ignore commercials. Most folk do that anyway. It just gave me the ability to choose when to take a break from the show to get a snack, discuss the show or whatever, rather than doing those things when the commercial break happens. :-D
John Dowdell
· 2 years ago
Sidenotes:
"the big news here is the fact that Adobe is already bloating and misusing a web technology that under Macromedia’s watch was ALWAYS very very scrutinized for its size..."
For what it's worth, size and overall consumer adoption rate are still extremely important in the Adobe Flash ecology.
The current Adobe Flash Player 9 is the largest package yet (1.3 meg for Windows plugin, eg), but it's also being adopted at the fastest rate of any version in history... about a third of all consumers tested had already installed it within ten weeks of release (the December audit should show it well within majority consumer deployment)... successfully completed installations consistently above five million each day, peaking above nine million in early December (probably due to the casting couch scandal in China).
I don't see evidence of Adobe degradation of Macromedia goals here myself... same people are still in charge of Player strategy... what I do see day to day is a shared consensus on the importance of predictable clientside capability, from the top exec level all the way down.
"The second reason this has me worried is we all know how long it takes to open a PDF file...."
Use the current version! Not only is it faster, and more fun, but it's also already protected against the JavaScript-confusion threats which are all the rage in the mainstream newspapers this week.
(For the VeriSign deal, I was interested in seeing Robert's reaction to an in-person demo, but I lack implementation details myself yet... figure we'll know more when this statement-of-intent is actually delivered later this year.)
tx, jd/adobe
Goebbels
· 2 years ago
"they wouldn’t have problems installing a software."
And if that software means hosting someone's content on your computer and using your bandwidth?
Yeah, exactly.
Rick Hanley
· 2 years ago
Netflix Subscriber Statistics From SEC 8-K 1/9/2007 ----------------------- It works in Excel and Word? Anyway, there are 6 columns. One key item is that the 2nd and 3rd Qtr's of 2006 show significantly slowing growth of 'Total Subscribers' on a percentage basis. 6.23% and 9.54%, respectfully, on a quarterly basis. These percents are less than half of most earlier quarterly growth percentages.
Quarter Total q/q Gross Adds Quit Net Adds 12/31/04 2,610 NA 783 402 381 03/31/05 3,018 15.63% 945 537 408 06/30/05 3,196 5.90% 707 529 178 09/30/05 3,592 12.39% 921 525 396 12/31/05 4,179 16.34% 1,156 569 587 03/31/06 4,866 16.44% 1,377 690 687 06/30/06 5,169 6.23% 1,070 767 303 09/30/06 5,662 9.54% 1,310 817 493 ----------------------------------- From the table above, here's the column for how many subs quit the service each qtr from 4th qtr, 2004 to 3rd qtr, 2006 --------------- Quit Netflix 4th qtr, 2004 --- 402 1st qtr, 2005 --- 537 2nd qtr, 2005 --- 529 3rd qtr, 2005 --- 525 4th qtr, 2005 --- 569 1st qtr, 2006 --- 690 2nd qtr, 2006 --- 767 3rd qtr, 2006 --- 817 ------------------ This is important because it shows that, over time, more than half the people who have tried the service quit. It reduces the pool of potential new subscribers and requires ever expanding marketing. NETFLIX IS DEAD
Rupert Watson
· 2 years ago
Robert, whilst it is not movies, I realise, the BBC are heading in this direction as well. Mark Thompson - the Director General of the BBC - is keen to get this peer to peer thing rolled out, as it means the BBC would no longer be bound to the tyranny of the broadcast schedule and the need to pay for transmission over the air would decline Additionally, the BBC brand could be leveraged worldwide.
They commissioned Zudeo to build them a Limewire-like P2P system which will allow them to position content ahead of time in the PC/Set-top box/AppleTV based on your preferences. They already have the iPlayer which allows you to carry BBC prgrammes acquired in this way working already.
Instead of expensively radiating content over the airwaves 24/7 in the traditional manner that broadcasters do - hoping someone's watching or using their PVR - they will fill your hard disk with enough torrented material to satiate your every conceivable viewing desire. They will "enable" the DRMed pieces of the torrent at a pre-determined time (a bit like now, just it isnt being broadcast) and allow you to watch the programme for seven days or so before turning it off - depending on the rights they have negotiated with the talent in the programme. So instead of reading a review of a TV programme and wishing you had seen it you can go to the TV and search for it and watch it.
What he did say is that the filter/search layer of this technology is not where they would like it to be and that the Beeb are looking for a player to give them the killer app that allows you to leverage the wisdom of crowds to discover things you didnt know you might like or had missed as well as exercising your own preferences.
Rich Willsby
· 2 years ago
Love It! Tried Netflix and they don't quite rock! Sound better than 2 days for a movie and scratched discs!
jbelkin
· 2 years ago
Adobe & Verizon?
You might as well say Venezuala & Cuba - all four are clearly living in the last century. Yea, Verizon talks a lot but they are just telco bureaucrats - they'll never get anything to scale correctly - hell, they don;'t even have the right phone technology going forward.
Ben Scoble
· 2 years ago
Netflix is dead is a bit harsh. I am not ready to hook up my laptop to my tv. But what I would like to see is somehow share my TIVO files with other TIVO users. Is that being addressed or am I still out of $30000?
Anna
· 2 years ago
NetFlix isn't dead as long as non-techie types -- like me - find it easy and convenient to use and understand. I don't even know what this p2p is, but it sounds like it involves downloading things, which is a pain to do.
NetFlix is more convenient then dealing with trying to get my six year old in and out of a video store sans temper tantrum, has more variety then the video place, and is easier to log into then my bank (which is beginning to irk by getting more complicated every six months).
JS
· 2 years ago
I don't see how could this be considered a threat, to neither Netflix nor Blockbuster. Don't you think that Adobe/Verisign is making rather a technology that content providers could choose to deliver their movies through? This is not different than Netflix using USPS to deliver its movies, or using a Web server to create the interface for their customers to manage their queues. I don't think that neither Adobe, nor Verisign, are going to start buying content (is not in their business line), but they are rather creating yet another technology for content providers to use (YouTube, VEOH, cinemanow), and Netflix should be announcing their on-line delivery solution on their earnings' call (at least that's what they said in their email). So, if Netflix dies, it will not be because Adobe and Verisign are coming out with new technology. Did either DIVX or XVID kill Netflix or Block Buster, how about TIVO? I don't think they did, nor they will, you see, I don't perceive Adobe/Verisign's new technology as competitive and threatening, but rather enabling and beneficial.
And just to answer the question to your statement: What may kill Netflix? Perhaps large content owners like Time Warner or Disney-Apple, just to mention a few. But, not even these will kill Netflix, most of the TV consumers may be signed-off from Netflix by the new IPTV (considering that Netflix does not come up with a compelling and competitive IPTV strategy), but you have to remember that there are lots of other content that you can't get from your TimeWarner, CableVision, LibertyMedia..., most likely because the majority of the population care little about, but it remains being a large market: IFC Films, BBC, Foreign films, Animation, Documentaries, Series (Are U being served, All creature great and small, Upstairs Downstairs...) So, you see, until the entire market can be fully satisfied by a single entity... Netflix may still have a while to live - don't you think?
One more thing, most of the people are not very much technically savvy, and many others are probably never to become one - just like many people don't know how to cook, nor sew, nor brew their own beer, technology is not different, what may seem to you trivial is not for the most part of the population. There are certain qualities that we are all born with: feeling sad, happy, aging, greed, malice, kindness... but technology is a skill (at times). I don't think, many are ready for plugging Laptops, Desktop, iPods, iPhones, and other devices to their TVs - make it simpler - make it an appliance, and not another application within the same appliance (PCs are just too generic).
I agree that Netflix is not trying hard enough - and they are slacking in their growth strategies - but I think they have a better chance than Block Buster, and keep in mind that for movies on line you need to consider: bandwidth will be vital (realtime .vs. download), bitrate (quality .vs. speed). Many people have online access, but not many have nice bandwidth. With the Internet growing and bandwidth being killed (remember that the US Internet backbone is not as good as the ones in Asia - they have a much better chance of sustaining traffic strain), there is the possibility that movies online may not be as real as one thought, for now. Let's see if Verizon finishes, and is willing to share - I don't think they will give the $10 billion investment to the public as charity, do you?
And on, and on, and on - sorry for the lengthy posting, but we could go at it forever.
JS
Kutulhu
· 2 years ago
You may not want to walk into a Blockbuster, but there are several independent video stores that have 1,000s of titles you will never see on Netflix, and arguably many more you will never see on any peer to peer system.
Michael
· 2 years ago
I will stick with Netflix. Why? Because Blockbuster has always had the worst low class movie selections, and Netflix has always had the best. Netflix' rating system works very well. I just cancelled my Verizon account all together because I wanted to keep my comcast email account and the high-speed, phone, cable bundle from Comcast made financial sense.
mark day
· 2 years ago
I would love to believe that Netfix signed their own death warrant when they started choking the accounts of the high-volume users who evangelized the service to their friends and coworkers. That was a cruddy move, regardless of how much their power-users were costing them. Although, in truth, I can't really muster the energy to get get annoyed at them these days. And at the end of the day I like paying a flat fee for movies that I rip n' return. The one thing that keeps me with Netflix is the fact that I don't have to decide, disc by disc, movie by movie, whether I want to pay for them.
Anyway, if Netflix goes under, how else is the President going to keep up with the nation's viewing habits?
Of course this sounds great... but Netflix's selection is superb, and there is just something about receiving something in your mailbox that can't be replaced.
On the other hand, does everyone in the U.S. has access to broadband cable? By this I mean both the service and the $$$ to pay for it. For instance, in my area there is no broadband, but there is hi-speed wireless internet. Not everyone would like to buy a high-end computer with a kick-ass internet connection to watch a movie. I'm a damn geek and proud of it, and have a very cool Toshiba laptop but I'm also based in reality, meaning that most people would rather just pick a movie at a store. They do what is most convenient for them.
That being said, these folks will still make a truckload of money!
mcstylin
· 2 years ago
I agree with post 77. Netflix is only dead many many years into the future, but not immediately. Not everyone has the technology to handle movie downloads, burn them or even watch them on their computers. In addition, there's always that segment of the population who wants to stay with their current technology; whether it be a VCR or DVD player. Its what makes them feel comfortable. It remains to be seen how many years into the future it takes for Netflix or Blockbuster to die out.
stuartdelony
· 2 years ago
pretty sweet stuff (though I'm not canceling my beloved netflix anytime soon!)
Shawn Levasseur
· 2 years ago
You never know... ...Netflix may go with digital distribution themselves. It's not like they have a big investment in brick and mortar outlets to justify like Blockbuster does.
emon
· 2 years ago
I don't know about anyone else, but I'm having fun reading the ping pong between Scoble and Goebbels.
organicvinyl
· 2 years ago
Copyrighted content distribute over P2P is enticing, but I don't count Netflix out yet.
1. "To Netflix" is (almost) a verb like "to google." It is too well branded and marketed to be killed off quickly.
2. Apple and Netflix share a physical proximity and former employees. I can see the Netflix rental and feedback system augmenting itunes.
3. Netflix already has the rights to distribute tons of movies. The movie studios trust and have been making money from them. If they can provide a solid digital distribution method on top of their current service, they'll be good to go.
4. More than likely, they will be bought or partner with a company like Apple or Google. I predict further and further consolidation and partnership of media type companies. Content is becoming more personalized and focused on niche markets, but a decent digital delivery system once it is established will be a commodity.
Just my 4 cents...
James
· 2 years ago
Streaming downloadbale movies is, in fact, the future. But is the future now?
A lot of people are old fasioned, and it's simply easier for them to just continue to use Netflix. Not to mention that this thing appears to be currently restricted to computers, though I'm sure some sort of set-top box will pop up eventually.
I was over at a friend's house this past summer, and he demoed how he could instantly stream the LotR movies from a video-on-demand service from his cable network. How is this better then that? Because it's HD, something most people still don't have?
Justin V
· 2 years ago
Netflix is not dead, far from it, the New Blockbuster Access(trading my movies in store, while other a still being shipped, awesome) may dent it more than this p2p network. I hate watching movies from my PC, even when I have my 32" Flat LCD hooked up to it. If could import to itunes and use something like an AppleTV, then maybe. Agrees with some of the posters, that relying on other people for content is a horrible way to get movies, and not to mention the added security concerns. Another factor, Connection speed, while high speed is growing and constantly getting faster, I personally know of places that are still using dial-up, simply because high speed internet isn't even offered.
Catherine
· 2 years ago
What about a system where movies can be downloaded from the computer onto a memory card and then then memory card could be used with the television system.
Verisign could work with PNY.
Saskboy1
· 2 years ago
"It made me realize why would any of us go into a Blockbuster in the future, or wait two days for a DVD to show up from Netflix."
Because satellite Internet will always be laggy and few people will want to use it as their primary connection line. It will be more than a decade until most North American people are on the speed of modern broadband.
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mile drive
· 2 years ago
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melissa
· 2 years ago
I wouldn't wait that long for a movie to arrive at my mailbox, that'd just hilarious. I will just get it on demand or I will rent it somewhere else.
Justin Rankin
· 2 years ago
Nice call on the netflix thing. good post!
cHlAqoCfBK
· 2 years ago
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djchuang
· 2 years ago
it's not over until the fat lady sings, as they say :) Just saw a piece in the express paper today en route to the DC airport here this morning, and NetFlix is launching a "Watch Now" feature at their online store, so people can download a movie via high-speed broadband internet to watch (almost) instantly! This'll avert its obsolescence, and there're probably enough people who'd prefer to stick with their NetFlix queue habit than to switch to a new provider to do movies.
As a Netflix subscriber, what I enjoy is the queue. I read about a movie that sounds interesting, add to my queue and sometime later - days, weeks, it shows up. I always have 2 - 4 movies in the house, so I always have something to watch, but I have made the choice already. I hate having to choose what to watch when I sit down. I can go, hmm, I have "Casino," I can watch that next weekend.
Kevin Hall
· 2 years ago
If you want to see some of this technology in action you can visit AxiomTV (www.axiom.tv) and download some movies using the VeriSign CDN (there are plenty of free ones to try, I like the Popeye cartoons). I was the lead developer on the site and worked with VeriSign to put movies on their delivery network. Note that our site uses VeriSign's CDN but not Adobe's Flash solution.
Before you knock VeriSign or Adobe, try checking out some of the technology in action. It's still new and we're working hard to make it better, but right now you can download a movie and start playing it in within a few minutes.
I don't think anyone will be killing Netflix or Blockbuster anytime soon. They are good companies that are adapting and offering downloads in their own ways. Everyone is just trying to figure out the best ways to use the internet to deliver video. We're only now reaching the point where broadband penetration is great enough to support it so know we are dealing with codecs, players, delivery networks, payment models, DRM, and a slew of other issues with no one clear solution.
If anyone has questions about anything use the contact form at www.axiom.tv and I'll be happy to answer your questions or respond to your comments.
All Comments
I'm not sure I want computers built into my TV, though. They change way faster than I'm going to update my screen (I expect I'll keep my 60-inch screen for five to 10 years, while I could see updating my Xbox and HD-DVD and Media Center PC every two to three years).
Separate question... Have you seen anything of what eCoupled are showing? (wireless power stuff). Not much news online about that yet... :o)
Nope, haven't seen that yet. I'll try to look them up tomorrow when I get the whole day to walk the show floor.
1. How big are these movies, even with streaming, how long do we have to wait from selection until watching? Probably longer than walking to the blockbuster down the street from me.
2. How much does it cost? If it's more than Netflix or Blockbuster then no deal.
3. Is the selection going to be better?
1) Worst case, they say, is two hours, and most HD movies will be playable within a few minutes. Compared to three days that my slowest Netflix movie took, that's pretty good. My closest video rental is a 10 minute drive, plus it usually takes 20 minutes to get in, find a movie, and get out of the store, plus another 10 minute drive home.
2) It's free to whatever the content owner wants to charge. Agreed there.
3) Yet to be seen. One thing is that they are doing deals with both big studios as well as small guys like me so you'll probably see more content eventually. But, today, far less.
Are you on crack? Today is the day for you to pull sh!t out of your ass, isn't it?
You don't know me, you don't know sh1t about me.
I'm not a subscriber or an investor! Your prognostication is lame, pathetic, and wrong. I'm mocking you, making fun of you, scorning you!
1. Verisign's product is a peer-assisted CDN, not a P2P app.
2. Bundling of apps doesn't mean you install the app, turn it on, and share your bandwidth.
3. As you said, others are doing it -- a standard bundling agreement somehow makes this one better and magically kills off the leading brick-and-mortar and virtual competitor yet you don't even know pricing or the full model, just that it's faster? Get a clue.
We're not getting it from you. Why should I be any different?
Its a great idea. I like having it now not later.
But, look at how p2p networks work? You search for content download a torrent and someone has to be sharing the content you want.
This means we are going to be running a client which is always on and always ready to share this content? That is crazy, how long before someone figures out how to exploit this scheme and because we are bypassing our firewalls(software and hardware) we are leaving a hole(s) open all the time.
So what's new about it. Its just like how the VCD business or the VHS rental died a while back.
This society is all about gimme, gimme, gimme. I want, I want, I want.
In this case, the content parties on board is really one of the trickiest parts. No one wants to be first; but, as was shown with napster, they can't afford to ignore it or be last.
Apple TV poses an extremely interesting solution. We shot close-up guerilla video blog of it today (after a ton of PR negotiations--)...and interviewed a bunch of established but cynical macheads in our podcast Would love your thoughts.
Again, Scoble, you are basing your opinions on your abnormal view of the world.
Backstory: The whole cable VOD business started out as an attempt to kill the video store. It stalled when the studios wouldn't give them the titles in the same window (distribution timeframe) as the video store. Studios had a fine cash cow selling DVDs. They didn't want to risk it.
But that's changing. You see more and more attempts to move to what the industry calls "day and date" which means that VOD, DVD, and soon DL or Streaming will become available on the same day and date.
Mark Cuban is a strong proponent of day and date. He's even putting theatrical release into the same window as all the others.
I agree w/Robert that long-term, the physical distribution of disks is going away. If you want to make money... try and hone in on just how long that term is. What do you think?
They may get some traction with distributing through Adobe, but their hands are not clean either - download something of theirs sometime - loaded with their own spyware.
The mechanism may work, but it will not be through these two.
Trackback http://securitygarden.blogspot.com/2007/01/veri...
Also, I can't even put into words how little trust I have for Verisign. Most people I know only trust them just barely enough to do the business they have to do with them on a corporate level, and no further. Their little DNS hijinks Tom mentioned only go to drive home how little respect or care they have for Internet users.
I would never, ever, ever, ever willingly sign up for a service from Verisign as a non-corporate customer.
Plus, half of Netflix's worth as a company is the stellar work they put into their web site. They are leaders in their field in this area and continue to drive the standard higher and higher.
My memories of Blockbuster from years back were that they started out by collecting too much private information on the customer, the video selection was horrible, new releases were sold out, it was a waste of time trying to find something bearable after seeing that the movies you wanted weren't there, they argued when you requested a rental refund on a bad tape, the stores had inadequate parking, they stacked the checkout lanes with candy (bad for kids), late fees, rewind fees. Why give them any satisfaction anymore?
I don't view Netflix as VOD. It is more or less a background treat. Build up a queue from a vast collection of movies (and other DVD content) and let it come. Maintain the queue periodically. The subscription is relatively cheap. The overall process is easy and relatively painless. So far the relationship has seemed fair. And it feels as if the average price per rental is low.
Contrast that with VOD systems that charge close to theater prices (7.99? 8.99? 9.99?, 10.99? per movie) with a DRM system that requires you watch it within 72 hours of receipt and that once you start watching it, it will expire in 24 hours. It's just a different thing altogether.
And, don't forget, that AT&T, Qwest, Comcast and all of the other telco/cableco broadband providers get their way on Net Neutrality. So, whatever Verisign does, they get their cut of it as well. Plus, since they're video delivery service providers as well as your pipe provider, they're in competition with these services. Will that hurt? Maybe.
The second reason this has me worried is we all know how long it takes to open a PDF file, hell, there are even liposuction techniques out there that will kill 90% of the adobe readers bloat (and thus loading time of pdf files) (just regsvr32 /u a bunch of dlls).
Now we have to wonder how great a platform the flash player will be when Adobe stuffs it full of garbage to the highest bidder. Why can't they just keep the relevant technologies in their format? Create a new standard and don't kill the thriving flash community over it. Bittorrent works fine, but thanks. You can even use RSS via bittorrent clients if you all didn't know. You get home and you have you content already downloaded.
- How much does it cost? Unless it can beat the Netflix price point people are more than happy to wait 2 days.
- Does it have the social aspect? People get a kick out of seeing what their friends are watching.
- How is it better than Microsoft's Video Marketplace? You can, today, download and watch HD movies via your XBox 360.
If anyone is going to be a Netflix killer it's the Video Marketplace + XBox 360 or iTunes + Apple TV, depending on who you want to sell your soul to.
Seriously, have you never used the HD movie download service on the XBox 360?
Maybe down the road Netflix is dead. But I don't hear a lot of people who are unhappy with their service. In fact, are die hard Netflix fans who won't just jump.
As to the P2P challenge, Intel "sneaked" me on something like this 10 years ago! Where is it now? Hmmmm... I agree with the comment by Tom that the biggest problem with this scenario is Versign. You know them, the GoDaddy killers! Verisign is a Soviet-style bureaucracy that is about as innovative as a rocking chair. I can’t wait to see what kind of Orwellian DRM they saddle it with. Big Verisign is watching what you watch… and don’t try to watch it on more than one TV, either!
Then there's value... if you cycle through a lot of Netflix movies every month you can push the rate to a buck a rental... Comcast OnDemand wants about $4 per view, so it's cheaper to rent from Netflix despite the convenience of OnDemand.
Plus, the installed base of DVD players, and the long cycle of getting consumers to change their habits ensures at least a bit more life to the DVD business - both sales and "rentals."
But here's the main reason it will be hard to kill Netflix: in a company as successful as Netflix the real value of the company is in their brand. For some public consumer-facing companies the brand makes up over 50% of the value of the company. Notice that their name is not DVD-flix, or PostOfficeFlix. They have a brand that would easily translate to distribution via the net. And their rating system, content, recommendation engine, etc. are other key assets that will make it easier for them to extend their brand and compete effectively against other companies who want to be in the business of distributing movies to consumers, whatever the method.
Someday, many years from now, I think IPTV will be the main type of TV distribution, making traditional cable and satellite obsolete. It will be the end of TV networks as we know them today, as well as heralding a new era of TV advertising and revenue models… but more on that another time.
Just the opposite: BlockBuster is losing money hand over first with its coupons and the costs of trying to figure out how to handle these returns, etc...
People should remember that Netflix is actually an extremely small company with a very modest userbase that makes tons of profit, almost prints money...
Yes, it doesn't seem like their subscribers are growing fast enough to be a true mainstream, largescale market and yes, someday (someday way in the future well after MUSIC first transforms into a primarily digital business) downloads will be competitive... Until, Netflix makes money and can invest in that future.
Netflix does already have the user base to make the switch as well as a great user interface on their website. Depending on what is out there at the time all of this P2P-type networks start taking off I'll have to wait to make my decision on which service to choose. But if netflix stayed the same, the market gets flooded with P2P movie download services, netflix lowers their prices, I would totally go with Netflix. But i'm sure that the competitors will come out with something comparable, so i will totally check out the P2P service when everything is all ready to go.
In the mean time, you guys are going to have a lot of home network updating to do. Or are you going to sit in front of your computer and watch all of your movies? The 360 streams some stuff and the iTV thing will be coming out. But I have purchased and tested the D-Link Media player with TVersity media server and love it and recommend it to all of you. Read my review here.
MS
So, I would expect it to be another decade before something like what you are describing becomes widespread enough to cause damage. People like my parents, that live in a town of 500 in the middle of nowhere won't hear of this until 2010 probably.
I don't think NetFlix and Blockbuster have anything to worry about in the short-term. By the time something like this would cause any worry, I'd bet that their distribution model will have already changed to accomodate it.
Even with braodband many people like the "low tech", kid-friendly, ease of use, and portability of DVD and the DVD Store.
I (or my wife) can get disc one of season one of The Shield online from Blockbuster. I watch it one my $90 DVD player. Then return it to the store down the street. Let my 3 young kids loose in the kid section of store to pick out a title - a DVD of episodes of Lazytown. My wife returns disc two of season two of Gilligan's Island (I loved it as a kid and my kids love it.) and gets The Devil Wears Prada to take over to a friends house for a night with the girls. We exchange the old movies and walk out with the new ones;. We put Lazytown in the $129 DVD player in the van and head to Grandma's house. No money exchanged. Disc two of season one of The Shield will arrive in a day along with whatever in the queue. Plus, something else is already in... It's easy and everyone's happy.
Suburban excitement...
WAKE UP AND REPORT THE NEWS......DON'T CREATE IT
but since the majority of the comments here have flamed you for that I'm sure you are well aware of it by now.
Asshole.
M
Then there's the DRM issue, which pretty much dictates whether or not consumers will actually find a system like this useful/usable.
You might want to take a short nap before your next post. It's starting to look like sleep deprivation and CES overload have turned off your critical thinking.
Yes Netflix as we know it today will eventually go away. No one argues that. The questions are WHEN and WHO. You've not made the gase it will be "SOON" and "VERISIGN." Not by a long shot.
...dude, it's VeriSign!
I've been amazed since my first introduction to TiVo that the adoption has been so low. Perhaps the same will be true of these newer services as well. Mainstream adoption of revolutionary technologies is often much slower than early adopters believe possible.
BTW, on a related but different point, TiVo didn't give me the ability to ignore commercials. Most folk do that anyway. It just gave me the ability to choose when to take a break from the show to get a snack, discuss the show or whatever, rather than doing those things when the commercial break happens. :-D
"the big news here is the fact that Adobe is already bloating and misusing a web technology that under Macromedia’s watch was ALWAYS very very scrutinized for its size..."
For what it's worth, size and overall consumer adoption rate are still extremely important in the Adobe Flash ecology.
The current Adobe Flash Player 9 is the largest package yet (1.3 meg for Windows plugin, eg), but it's also being adopted at the fastest rate of any version in history... about a third of all consumers tested had already installed it within ten weeks of release (the December audit should show it well within majority consumer deployment)... successfully completed installations consistently above five million each day, peaking above nine million in early December (probably due to the casting couch scandal in China).
I don't see evidence of Adobe degradation of Macromedia goals here myself... same people are still in charge of Player strategy... what I do see day to day is a shared consensus on the importance of predictable clientside capability, from the top exec level all the way down.
"The second reason this has me worried is we all know how long it takes to open a PDF file...."
Use the current version! Not only is it faster, and more fun, but it's also already protected against the JavaScript-confusion threats which are all the rage in the mainstream newspapers this week.
(For the VeriSign deal, I was interested in seeing Robert's reaction to an in-person demo, but I lack implementation details myself yet... figure we'll know more when this statement-of-intent is actually delivered later this year.)
tx, jd/adobe
And if that software means hosting someone's content on your computer and using your bandwidth?
Yeah, exactly.
From SEC 8-K 1/9/2007
-----------------------
It works in Excel and Word? Anyway, there are 6 columns. One key item is that the 2nd and 3rd Qtr's of 2006 show significantly slowing growth of 'Total Subscribers' on a percentage basis. 6.23% and 9.54%, respectfully, on a quarterly basis. These percents are less than half of most earlier quarterly growth percentages.
Quarter Total q/q Gross Adds Quit Net Adds
12/31/04 2,610 NA 783 402 381
03/31/05 3,018 15.63% 945 537 408
06/30/05 3,196 5.90% 707 529 178
09/30/05 3,592 12.39% 921 525 396
12/31/05 4,179 16.34% 1,156 569 587
03/31/06 4,866 16.44% 1,377 690 687
06/30/06 5,169 6.23% 1,070 767 303
09/30/06 5,662 9.54% 1,310 817 493
-----------------------------------
From the table above, here's the column for how many subs quit the service each qtr from 4th qtr, 2004 to 3rd qtr, 2006
---------------
Quit Netflix
4th qtr, 2004 --- 402
1st qtr, 2005 --- 537
2nd qtr, 2005 --- 529
3rd qtr, 2005 --- 525
4th qtr, 2005 --- 569
1st qtr, 2006 --- 690
2nd qtr, 2006 --- 767
3rd qtr, 2006 --- 817
------------------
This is important because it shows that, over time, more than half the people who have tried the service quit. It reduces the pool of potential new subscribers and requires ever expanding marketing.
NETFLIX IS DEAD
They commissioned Zudeo to build them a Limewire-like P2P system which will allow them to position content ahead of time in the PC/Set-top box/AppleTV based on your preferences. They already have the iPlayer which allows you to carry BBC prgrammes acquired in this way working already.
Instead of expensively radiating content over the airwaves 24/7 in the traditional manner that broadcasters do - hoping someone's watching or using their PVR - they will fill your hard disk with enough torrented material to satiate your every conceivable viewing desire. They will "enable" the DRMed pieces of the torrent at a pre-determined time (a bit like now, just it isnt being broadcast) and allow you to watch the programme for seven days or so before turning it off - depending on the rights they have negotiated with the talent in the programme. So instead of reading a review of a TV programme and wishing you had seen it you can go to the TV and search for it and watch it.
What he did say is that the filter/search layer of this technology is not where they would like it to be and that the Beeb are looking for a player to give them the killer app that allows you to leverage the wisdom of crowds to discover things you didnt know you might like or had missed as well as exercising your own preferences.
You might as well say Venezuala & Cuba - all four are clearly living in the last century. Yea, Verizon talks a lot but they are just telco bureaucrats - they'll never get anything to scale correctly - hell, they don;'t even have the right phone technology going forward.
NetFlix is more convenient then dealing with trying to get my six year old in and out of a video store sans temper tantrum, has more variety then the video place, and is easier to log into then my bank (which is beginning to irk by getting more complicated every six months).
And just to answer the question to your statement: What may kill Netflix? Perhaps large content owners like Time Warner or Disney-Apple, just to mention a few. But, not even these will kill Netflix, most of the TV consumers may be signed-off from Netflix by the new IPTV (considering that Netflix does not come up with a compelling and competitive IPTV strategy), but you have to remember that there are lots of other content that you can't get from your TimeWarner, CableVision, LibertyMedia..., most likely because the majority of the population care little about, but it remains being a large market: IFC Films, BBC, Foreign films, Animation, Documentaries, Series (Are U being served, All creature great and small, Upstairs Downstairs...) So, you see, until the entire market can be fully satisfied by a single entity... Netflix may still have a while to live - don't you think?
One more thing, most of the people are not very much technically savvy, and many others are probably never to become one - just like many people don't know how to cook, nor sew, nor brew their own beer, technology is not different, what may seem to you trivial is not for the most part of the population. There are certain qualities that we are all born with: feeling sad, happy, aging, greed, malice, kindness... but technology is a skill (at times). I don't think, many are ready for plugging Laptops, Desktop, iPods, iPhones, and other devices to their TVs - make it simpler - make it an appliance, and not another application within the same appliance (PCs are just too generic).
I agree that Netflix is not trying hard enough - and they are slacking in their growth strategies - but I think they have a better chance than Block Buster, and keep in mind that for movies on line you need to consider: bandwidth will be vital (realtime .vs. download), bitrate (quality .vs. speed). Many people have online access, but not many have nice bandwidth. With the Internet growing and bandwidth being killed (remember that the US Internet backbone is not as good as the ones in Asia - they have a much better chance of sustaining traffic strain), there is the possibility that movies online may not be as real as one thought, for now. Let's see if Verizon finishes, and is willing to share - I don't think they will give the $10 billion investment to the public as charity, do you?
And on, and on, and on - sorry for the lengthy posting, but we could go at it forever.
JS
Anyway, if Netflix goes under, how else is the President going to keep up with the nation's viewing habits?
http://markdaycomedy.wordpress.com/2006/10/20/g...
On the other hand, does everyone in the U.S. has access to broadband cable? By this I mean both the service and the $$$ to pay for it. For instance, in my area there is no broadband, but there is hi-speed wireless internet. Not everyone would like to buy a high-end computer with a kick-ass internet connection to watch a movie. I'm a damn geek and proud of it, and have a very cool Toshiba laptop but I'm also based in reality, meaning that most people would rather just pick a movie at a store. They do what is most convenient for them.
That being said, these folks will still make a truckload of money!
1. "To Netflix" is (almost) a verb like "to google." It is too well branded and marketed to be killed off quickly.
2. Apple and Netflix share a physical proximity and former employees. I can see the Netflix rental and feedback system augmenting itunes.
3. Netflix already has the rights to distribute tons of movies. The movie studios trust and have been making money from them. If they can provide a solid digital distribution method on top of their current service, they'll be good to go.
4. More than likely, they will be bought or partner with a company like Apple or Google. I predict further and further consolidation and partnership of media type companies. Content is becoming more personalized and focused on niche markets, but a decent digital delivery system once it is established will be a commodity.
Just my 4 cents...
A lot of people are old fasioned, and it's simply easier for them to just continue to use Netflix. Not to mention that this thing appears to be currently restricted to computers, though I'm sure some sort of set-top box will pop up eventually.
I was over at a friend's house this past summer, and he demoed how he could instantly stream the LotR movies from a video-on-demand service from his cable network. How is this better then that? Because it's HD, something most people still don't have?
Verisign could work with PNY.
Because satellite Internet will always be laggy and few people will want to use it as their primary connection line. It will be more than a decade until most North American people are on the speed of modern broadband.
I've had enough of them!
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Netflix to Be Delivered on the Internet
Before you knock VeriSign or Adobe, try checking out some of the technology in action. It's still new and we're working hard to make it better, but right now you can download a movie and start playing it in within a few minutes.
I don't think anyone will be killing Netflix or Blockbuster anytime soon. They are good companies that are adapting and offering downloads in their own ways. Everyone is just trying to figure out the best ways to use the internet to deliver video. We're only now reaching the point where broadband penetration is great enough to support it so know we are dealing with codecs, players, delivery networks, payment models, DRM, and a slew of other issues with no one clear solution.
If anyone has questions about anything use the contact form at www.axiom.tv and I'll be happy to answer your questions or respond to your comments.