Scobleizer - Latest Comments in Economic Idiocy

Re: Economic Idiocy

oldtimerock — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 10:51:10 -0000

We’re in wild economic times. What should be done now? I’d still do the bailout, although that will lead to inflation and a devaluation of our dollar. Ha! i totally agree with this tought.

programmer from tatoo designs

Re: Economic Idiocy

Forex — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 20:24:15 -0000

I wish the answer was simple i miss the days we blieved democracy is the cure for all the humanity problems i guess it is not.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Some Guy — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 09:45:56 -0000

Tom,

It doesn't take a PhD in economics to understand what's going on today. It's not complicated, it's just being obfuscated by the culprits. So, knocking Scoble for lacking the degree is kind of beside the point. Knock him for being wrong, not for whatever sheepskin he does or doesn't have.

Don't forget that John Maynard Keynes and John Kenneth Galbraith had PhDs in economics, and they were both dead wrong on the question of what role government should play.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Some Guy — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 09:40:37 -0000

"When will people realize that the less government is involved, the better off everyone is."

There was a time when most of the people in this country realized it, and we overthrew our king.

Let me give you a bit of hope, though: Because of Ron Paul's campaign, tens of thousands of people now understand what the Federal Reserve is doing to us.

Ron's put things back on the agenda that had been given up as lost causes nearly a century ago. He's made a lot of people understand that patriotism doesn't mean supporting an empire. He's gotten a lot of people to think twice about the drug war. Most of all, he's gotten a lot of people to move beyond the idea that government is our mommy and it should fix everything for us.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Some Guy — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 09:35:13 -0000

Robert,

Take the time to read Bastiat, and try to get your head around the concept of the broken window fallacy.

When you say that we got back most of our money from the S&L bailout, you're ignoring the fact that the money spent on bailing out those failed institutions wasn't available to fund other activities. Worse than that, it was money taken by force (taxes) to give to managers who had already demonstrated their incompetence to manage it. There's an old saying that goes "you get what you pay for", and that certainly holds true when you're talking about paying incompetent speculators.

As for Gray's claim that there are no experts, he's full of crap. There are hundreds of people who saw this coming, said it was coming, and know how to make it as short and painless as possible, and those experts are being ignored because what they have to say doesn't support a power-grab.

It's all there in Mises's book, The Theory of Money and Credit. How and why bubbles are created, how they fail, who benefits from causing these cycles, and what it takes to recover from them.

Right now, our government is trying to keep asset prices at unrealistic levels, and is interfering with the repricing that must (and eventually will) happen. They're still following their 1929 game plan, and it's as wrong today as it was then.

The choice at hand is whether to have a bad year or two, or a bad decade or two. If the bailout goes through, we'll be right back in the same situation in another year, only the problem will be far larger. The idea that this can be fixed by inflating the money by another 700 billion is asinine; if it were possible to "stimulate" an economy by inflation, Zimbabwe would be the healthiest economy on the planet.

Re: Economic Idiocy

John Ahrens — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 17:36:39 -0000

We've had 14+ years without a recession, far longer than any time in the past. The good times have been pushed along by bubbles artificially created. First the internet bubble, then the housing bubble. In between was a terrorist bubble. All this paid for by more borrowing. The correction is coming, we'd be better off allowing it to self-correct and quit trying to micromanage via government fiat. That's not what government is good at.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Joe B. Wharton — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 14:27:15 -0000

Scoble:

Most of us read your blog for what you are an expert in - technology. If we want to read about politics or economics, we'll go to another website. You are an expert in neither.

And the way you responded to Gary, you showed yourself to be an ass (so I guess according to your buddy, Doc, you're one of the masses). I think you owe Gary an apology. Who the hell does Robert Scoble think he is anyway?

Re: Economic Idiocy

Secret Owl — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 12:45:12 -0000

The bailout is badly conceived. In addition to the bailout of the known entities, the government had additional riders attached that were pure pork barrel garbage.

Over the last few years, I've started changing my political outlook to that of the libertarians. It's the only logical choice. I should never have to pay for someone else's mistakes. The onus should not be on the taxpayers for stupid economics. The leaders of those entities that cratered should be tried and imprisoned much like the Enron and Worldcom bunch.

When will people realize that the less government is involved, the better off everyone is.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Tom — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 02:39:30 -0000

Scoble, I don't recall you getting a PhD. in Economics. What's next, you giving out medical advice?

As far as idiocy goes: "Physican, heal thyself!"

Speaking of idiots, the same idiots that were the catalyst for this problem (Democrats) are keeping this bill from being passed. (94 Dems voted "no". In case we've forgotten, the Dems control the majority in the House). And when it does pass why would we trust the same idiots that caused this problem (Dems) to fix it?

Re: Economic Idiocy

Michael Hellein — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 00:10:51 -0000

It seems to me that the Internet is just as bad a place as any to get advice from strangers. I'm happy to put my shoulder to the wheel on friendfeed, but my assumption is that we're each producing a lot more noise than signal, and, inherently, making sense of that can't be crowdsourced - we'll just generate more noise. As far as individual experts go, I follow Dean Baker, Robert Reich, and Nouriel Roubini. (Not David Brooks, however. His explanation above of capital "floods" and "sloshes" does not seem like a description of the real-world problem: banks took fantasy money out of a series of markets, and that delusion is now being revealed in no uncertain terms. There's no flood or slosh: money that never existed is now assigned its correct value, though the companies affected have done their best to conceal the true "losses".) Props to Robert Accettura, Veejay Burns, and John Lopez above. It's a mystery to me why more folks weren't worried when home prices began their unprecedented climb - perhaps it takes a gyrating Dow to puncture our reveries.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Brian Wilson — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:50:54 -0000

Hey Scoble, great post. I've just got a thought on your point about the experts being wrong. I think it's critical this early in the game that we keep level heads and think before we make our decisions. The only thing I am currently sure about regarding the economy is that neither Barack Obama nor John McCain are going to be able to solve this problem. It is going to take a more educated public (that doesn't spend more than it makes) and a more cautious or more regulated Wall Street. But it is probably not likely that average Joes will become more financially savvy and Washington lobbyists might be able to block regulation of Wall Street.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Salam Adil — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 17:51:50 -0000

For goodness sake Robert, snap out of it! The world does not end at the edge of the Pacific Ocean. When the economy is tight at home sensible companies look abroad. There is a whole world out there. The Arab world is flush with cash and nothing to spend it on but real estate. It is only a pity that the US burnt its bridges with a pretty stupid foreign policy. Why don't you do yourself a favor, take a short break in Dubai and cheer up.

Re: Economic Idiocy

bonnieL — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 15:53:19 -0000

Idiocy Mr. Scoble?

To me idiocy is taxing us on savings account interest and
NOT taxing us on credit card balances.

best,
bonnieL

Re: Economic Idiocy

John Lopez — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:56:36 -0000

Robert Accettura speaks great wisdom in my book. Housing values haven't crashed, they have returned (are returning?) to the ballpark of what they should be without the artificial inflation caused by insane loan practices and a "housing prices never fall" mentality. I wish this chart was updated with the current situation:

http://www.speculativebubbl... (scroll to the bottom for the chart, or watch the video for an amusing portrayal) .

However, there are even more fundamental issues at play here. Our economy has been based on binge spending via credit for a long time, and the crows are now roosting.

We save little (around 4% in 2005): http://www.nationmaster.com...

And spend much via credit (around 19% in 2003): http://money.cnn.com/2003/1...

Looking at these old articles, one can see the house of cards at the height of being built. Today, we see the cards falling around us, yet act surprised. I think that is the most disappointing part of the whole cycle, that we walk into them with eyes wide open.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Robert Scoble — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:41:48 -0000

Scott: I do not have a stake in FriendFeed. I am not being compensated by them. It is simply the best community and aggregator out there right now. If you have one that's better, I'd love to hear about it.

Re: Economic Idiocy

ChangeForge | Ken Stewart — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:24:31 -0000

Robert, thank you for the post. I will interject that I think all of this passion is a wonderful thing. The fact that people are responding is wonderful!

I believe your issue is how they are responding... at what level. One thing I have learned in my own life is people go through various stages of (actually wrote a post on handling change in uncertain times due to some personal issues I'm currently facing):

http://www.changeforge.com/...

Nonetheless, it warrants mentioning in this scenario b/c people go through various stages of denial and fear - and the strong ones come to grips with hard reality and triumph! That is the America I know and love.

However, in this situation very few people on the outside know how this got started or even how to fix it. It is not a simple solution. What you are seeing is totally normal - a backlash of emotion.

The leaders are the ones who see there way clear by taking a step back and surveying the landscape, then acting decisively. There is always a sense of urgency, but we should not allow fear to guide us.

I think this may be a point you are talking around, but I wounder if you, yourself, are reacting negatively b/c you are a decisive person and cannot bear to watch others make "wrong choices".

I would offer you encouragement that America will see it self clear of this and we will all learn lessons. However, I do worry we may have quite a bit of collateral damage no matter which direction we move.

I, for one, am not convinced the package is viable in its current state. But I do have confidence our country will see its way through this... and perhaps a little smack on the face is what we all need.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

From 1 American to Another,
Ken Stewart

Re: Economic Idiocy

Bill Sanders (@technacea) — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 13:33:56 -0000

I have to agree that the level of discourse I'm seeing on FriendFeed is not encouraging. Regarding the bailout, I find myself unable to research what is being proposed fast enough to form a solid opinion/argument before the situation changes. Should we do something? Yes. But I'm not encouraged that anyone can accurately forecast the consequences of the proposed legislative actions. And I have very little faith that our elected representatives will make their decisions based on the good of the country vs. their own political objectives. Principles, character, and a comprehensive economic worldview seem oddly absent from the conversation. - My Friendfeed is the same as my website if you choose to follow...

Re: Economic Idiocy

Court — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 12:32:56 -0000

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." - Winston Churchill

This problem started growing in the 70's, but times like the link below didn't help

http://www.youtube.com/watc...

Would you expect intelligent dialogue on quantum physics from a used car salesman? Then why would you expect it from journalism majors (writers) or lawyers (government) on finance issues. It is too easy to voice an opinion these days and too hard to filter through the BS.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Miquel Fornas — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 12:29:44 -0000

Have you read by any chance this plausible alternative?:

http://worldreports.org/new...

I just don't know for sure what to make of it but looks intriguing.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Ted Murphy — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 11:59:12 -0000

Here's a poll from The Motley Fool, taken after the House rejected the bailout plan and sent the market down an extra 400 point. Only 33% (3,561 out of 10,804) said that they did NOT agree with the House's rejection. That's an absurdly low number, given the source of this poll.

Do you agree with the House's rejection of the bailout plan?

Yes, I do agree. The plan is an obvious bailout for people who don't deserve it. Let free markets reign -- we'll get over this problem someday.
3231 votes - 30%

The plan needs to be passed, but not in its current form. Tell the House to revise it and get it into law as soon as possible.
3391 votes - 31%

No, I don't agree with today's moves. The plan should be passed and put into law as quickly as possible.
3561 votes - 33%

The economy is doomed either way. RIP, U.S. of A.
621 votes - 6%

http://www.fool.com/investi...

Re: Economic Idiocy

Web 1.0, meet my friend Wall S — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 11:31:48 -0000

"I find I’m looking to experts and elites more and more, because the crap I’m seeing out of all of our mouths is just so, um, wrong."

And this surprises you????

I've been saying for the past couple of years that the democratization of media/citizen journalism movement that the Web 2.0 Idealists have been cheering has one fundamental flaw -- a belief that the masses are capable of holding a rational, elevated worldview in the face of crisis.

Much like the failure of Greek democracy (a little research will reveal how Athens simply slid into mob rule, which led to the collapse of their likewise trade-based empire in the closing years of the Peloponnesian War -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wik... ), the pending collapse of the US is a self-made crisis.

Rampant deregulation since the '80s, and mis-management/lax oversight of the financial markets particularly during the Bush tenure, led to a Wild West mentality on Wall Street -- much like what we saw in the Valley during Web 1.0... Remember how it was when one didn't even need a business model, and barely needed an idea, to get funding?

Without adequate safeguards, history repeats. The stage may change (this time, it was Wall St.), but the plot remains the same...

What's coming is our own fault. And frankly, if one removes one's emotional involvement, this coming shakedown & collapse is sorely needed if we are to ever gain the political will and fortitude to enact the regulation, etc. which will prevent this sort of thing from happening in something so tied into our national security and economic well-being as our financial & real estate markets... ever again.

The system we have is flawed. We need something better. Best not to continue to bailout and prop up this dead horse any longer.

Here's hoping for something better after the dust settles in a decade or so....

Re: Economic Idiocy

Roger von Oech — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:55:06 -0000

Scoble says: "In the past 18 hours I’ve read literally thousands of posts and have done almost nothing but hang out on FriendFeed"

If I wanted to keep a cool head and put the day's events in perspective, this is about the last thing I'd do. It's time for some reflection . . . away from the noise.

Good luck with your serenity.

Re: Economic Idiocy

VeeJay Burns — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:37:55 -0000

At this point in time we may face Idiocy, maybe even frenzy, but at its core is something much darker: It is greed. A 'little while ago'' Descarte wrote: "Cogito Ergo Sum", I think therefor I exist. In the past century -and especially in the USA -it has grown to I shop, therefor I am.

Marketing guru's like Edward Bernays have found the triggers that make us buy things we don't need, all to keep the economy running. Now throw in a bunch of greedy stockowners and shortsellers and you've got a volatile mix, focussed on short term profits. Profit is the main driver in our present economy. We lack long term vision and that's what's killing us now.

In our drive for profits and growth we have overextended ourselves. Where did sound economics go that said "Don't buy if you can't afford"? Instead we've invented credit card debt. We let go of the gold standard an have invented trillions of dollars of State Debt. We started speculating with money we don't have.

Well, now we drop dead shopping. Back to thinking, looking at what we're doing out there. What do we need, and why do we think we need more? Why do we desperately want to have a bigger car than our neighbours, or a bigger house than our colleagues.

If you've done healthy financial management, didn't overextend and are debt free, the storm will pass. Maybe we've got to accept the fact that in other cases it's a dreadfull, yet necessary correction to our unbridled greed.

Re: Economic Idiocy

Indra — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:30:58 -0000

I don't think it's idiocy, Mr. Scoble. I believe it's greediness pushed to the max...

Re: Economic Idiocy

Scott — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:14:18 -0000

Do you have a stake in FriendFeed ? So often, I hear you push friendfeed, and its making me wonder whether your investor or something. Why do you push friendfeed so much?